# Satoria

> Satoria forecasts the numbers of everyday life (prices, pay, rents, jobs, health, population) every month, with a likely range for each forecast, and scores every forecast against what really happens, in public. English only.

Coverage: 215 forecast indicators, 68 countries with forecasts of their own (204 countries have data in the database), 40 data providers (17 public institutions; 15 behind the published indicators) with 44 datasets, 5,942 published forecast series, 10-year horizon. Last model run: 2026-10-19.
Testing: Protocol v7.4. Evaluation fold B: history cut at the panel anchor minus 5 years, 5 years scored out of sample. The anchor is the newest year at least 50% of an indicator's country series reach, so one fast country cannot move the window for the rest. Selection fold A: history cut at the panel anchor minus 10 years, 5 years forecast. Used only to choose each indicator's mix of models and to size its interval. Its last target year is fold B's as-of year, so nothing chosen on A had seen B's outcomes. Interval widths come from fold A and the older windows anchor-15, anchor-20; published intervals add fold B. The headline accuracy is a 5-year out-of-sample test on history up to each indicator's as-of year, not a check on the published 10-year forecasts. Fold B also decides which v8 (driver-based) indicators are published, so the fold-B score of a published v8 indicator is a validation result, not an independent test (ml_v7/engine.py). The prospective forecast ledger is the independent test. Chronos-2 and TimesFM are pretrained by their vendors on public data that may already contain part of the history they are scored on. The local fit respects the as-of cut; the pretraining corpus is outside our control. Inputs are pseudo-real-time: today's revised data, not the vintage that was available in the as-of year. A revision published later can flatter or punish a model.. Reliability grades: 47 high, 88 moderate, 80 experimental (basis: skill on the latest 5-year holdout vs a 'no change' forecast; high = errors at least 15% smaller on 3+ series; never high when the data stopped arriving). 80% ranges held the real value 74.1% of the time (yearly) and 73.6% (monthly).

## How to cite Satoria numbers correctly
- Say "Satoria forecasts" (not "Satoria predicted" or "AI predicted"), give the year, the country and the range.
- Keep the status: fact (observation), official estimate (e.g. IMF projection), Satoria forecast, or scenario. A crossing year of two central paths is "on Satoria's central path", not a certainty.
- Keep the measure: e.g. output per person adjusted for prices is not pay or income.
- Link the story; every story lists its sources and limits.

## Stories (surprising findings, each with sources, ranges and limits)
- [Canadian housing is near its 2016 real-price level. Our 2035 path still misses late 2021.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/canada-homes-back-near-2016-2026-09): 161.9 (Satoria forecast: Canada, 2035 - index (2010 = 100))
- [Morocco's prices rose 0.7% in 2025, less than in Canada. Our path keeps Morocco under 2% a year to 2035.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/morocco-prices-barely-move-2026-09): 1.8 (Satoria forecast: Morocco, 2035 - % a year)
- [Kenya's health coverage score fell to 49 out of 100 in 2020. Our path has it at 67 in 2033.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/kenya-health-coverage-back-up-2026-09): 66.8 (Satoria forecast: Kenya, 2033 - points out of 100)
- [Half of Brazil's energy came from renewable sources in 2023. America's share was 12%.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/brazil-half-its-energy-renewable-2026-09): 52.0 (Satoria forecast: Brazil, 2033 - % of final energy use)
- [Egypt more than halved its deaths in childbirth since 2008. Our path puts it below America in 2027.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/egypt-passes-america-mothers-2026-09): 2027 (Satoria forecast: Egypt's central path goes below the American one)
- [Poland's share of adults with obesity barely moves by 2034. Chile's reaches one adult in two.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/poland-weight-line-flat-2026-09): 22.2 (Satoria forecast: Poland, 2034 - % of adults)
- [Poland halves the carbon in each dollar of output again by 2033, on our central path.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/poland-carbon-per-dollar-2026-09): 0.08 (Satoria forecast: Poland, 2034 - kg per dollar)
- [Poland is losing people and Peru is gaining them. Our path has Peru ahead from about 2029.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/peru-passes-poland-2026-09): 2029 (Satoria forecast: Central paths meet in 2029)
- [America could pass 20% aged 65+ in 2029. The shift reaches beyond retirement.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/america-one-in-five-over-65-2026-09): 21.9 (Satoria forecast: United States, 2035 - % of the population)
- [Our US real-price forecast could regain the 2024 average in 2030, or Q4 2024's level in 2031.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/american-houses-back-to-2024-in-2032-2026-09): 160.4 (Satoria forecast: 2030, annual-average forecast, index (2010 = 100))
- [America's lowest child death rate was 2022. Satoria's central forecast reaches 6 per 1,000 by 2034.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/america-child-deaths-stalled-2026-09): 5.98 (Satoria forecast: United States, 2034 - per 1,000 births)
- [America reaches about 15% renewable energy in 2033, still under the world's 18% in 2023.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/america-renewable-share-2026-09): 15.0% (Satoria forecast: United States, 2033)
- [China passes America in 2030 on health service coverage, and reaches 91 out of 100 by 2033.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/china-passes-america-health-coverage-2026-09): 2030 (Satoria forecast: China goes above the United States on the central paths)
- [Argentina passes America in 2030 on adults living with obesity. By 2034 it is 47 in every 100.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/argentina-passes-america-obesity-2026-09): 2030 (Satoria forecast: Argentina goes above the United States on the central paths)
- [Thailand had 8.58 people in 100 aged 65 and over in 2010. By 2034 it is level with America.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/thailand-level-with-america-older-2026-09): 21.8 (Satoria forecast: Thailand, 2034 - % of people)
- [Turkey drops below America on births per 1,000 people in 2026. By 2034 it reaches 5.86.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/turkey-below-america-births-2026-09): 2026 (Satoria forecast: Turkey goes below the United States on the central paths)
- [Indonesia's share of adults living with obesity doubled since 2009. It passes Denmark's share around 2030.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/indonesia-passes-denmark-obesity-2026-09): 2030 (Satoria forecast: Indonesia passes Denmark on the central paths)
- [Egypt overtakes Japan in 2028 on our path. Japan has now shrunk for fourteen years running.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/egypt-passes-japan-2026-09): 2028 (Satoria forecast: Egypt passes Japan on the central paths)
- [In 2009 the Philippines had 3.38 children per woman. By 2034 the central path reaches 1.62.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/below-replacement-asia-2026-09): 1.62 (Satoria forecast: Philippines, 2034 - children per woman)
- [India is now where America was in 2009. On our path it passes nine in ten around 2031.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/nine-in-ten-online-2026-09): 93.7 (Satoria forecast: India, 2032 - % of people)
- [India's rate falls every year since 2009. South Africa's low point was 2021. It misses the line in 2028.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/child-deaths-target-25-2026-09): 32.6 (Satoria forecast: South Africa, 2034 - per 1,000 births)
- [India reaches the newborn target in 2030. The Philippines is still short of it in 2034.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/newborn-target-2030-2026-09): 9.05 (Satoria forecast: India, 2034 - per 1,000 births)
- [A French home costs less than in 2010, and our forecast has it back above that price by 2035.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/your-twenties-2026-09): 105.9 (Satoria forecast: France, 2035 - index (2010 = 100))
- [Energy bills stop jumping in 2027. Our model has Italy near 2% and Poland above 5% out to 2036.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/your-seventies-2026-09): 2.0% (Satoria forecast: Italy, 2036)
- [Poland's school and nursery prices speed up to about 10.4% a year by 2036, faster than energy from 2027.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/your-forties-2026-09): 10.4% (Satoria forecast: Poland, 2036)
- [Our model has Britain at 6 in 100 without work in 2030 and 5.6 in 2035. Poland falls to 3.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/your-fifties-2026-09): 5.6% (Satoria forecast: United Kingdom, 2035)
- [Spain has 2.3 million fewer people than South Korea. Our model has Spain in front from 2031.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/spain-passes-korea-people-2026-09): 2031 (Satoria forecast: Spain clearly ahead of South Korea)
- [Our forecast: house prices in the United States are higher in 2035, after inflation. Savings pay 0.37%.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/savings-after-prices-2027-2026-09): 164.7 (Satoria forecast: United States, 2035 - index (2010 = 100))
- [A baby's first year is safer in Romania than in America from 2031, on our central path.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/romania-passes-america-babies-2026-09): 2031 (Satoria forecast: Romania passes the United States)
- [Germany leads Poland by 0.02 newborn deaths per 1,000 births. Poland goes in front in 2027.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/poland-passes-germany-newborns-2026-09): 2027 (Satoria forecast: Poland passes Germany)
- [The Dutch are at 96 in 100 in a town or city. Our model says 99 in 100 by 2035.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/netherlands-runs-out-of-countryside-2026-09): 99.2 (Satoria forecast: Netherlands, 2035 - % of the population)
- [One in four Italians is already 65 or over. South Korea reaches that share in 2033 on our forecast.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/korea-passes-italy-oldest-2026-09): 2033 (Satoria forecast: South Korea passes Italy)
- [Nine years of rises in our forecast leave Italian houses below their 2010 price in 2035.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/italy-houses-still-cheaper-2026-09): 84.7 (Satoria forecast: Italy, 2035 - 2010 = 100)
- [France's grain harvest reaches about 56 million tonnes in 2034. Shop food prices rise a third to two thirds.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/flat-harvest-2030-2026-09): 55.8 million (Satoria forecast: France, 2034 - tonnes)
- [Newborn deaths in Poland fall from 2.47 to 1.95 per 1,000 births by 2034. Britain is the exception.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/first-month-of-life-2030-2026-09): 1.95 (Satoria forecast: Poland, 2034 - per 1,000 births)
- [Czechia has caught Japan and South Korea on output per person. Too close to call a winner.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/czechia-passes-japan-income-2026-09): 44,856 (Satoria forecast: Czechia, 2035 - US dollars)
- [Spain gains 3.5 million people by 2035 while Poland loses 850,000, and births explain neither.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/births-are-not-population-2035-2026-09): 52.9 million (Satoria forecast: Spain, 2035 - people)
- [Spain had more babies in 2025. Our model still puts America at more than twice its rate by 2034.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/america-twice-as-many-babies-2026-09): 9.55 (Satoria forecast: United States, 2034 - per 1,000 people)
- [Sweden is the safest place for a small child. Italy closes nine tenths of the gap and stops.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/safest-place-to-be-a-child-2026-09): 2.23 (Satoria forecast: Italy, 2034 - per 1,000 births)
- [Poland could pass Spain in 2027 and Italy around 2034, in output per person.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/poland-passes-italy-2026-09): 2034 (Satoria forecast: Poland passes Italy)
- [Sweden climbs to 20.2% of adults obese by 2034. Spain, France and Italy keep falling.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/obesity-map-splits-2026-09): 20.2% (Satoria forecast: Sweden, 2034)
- [Renewables reach 23% of all the energy the Netherlands uses by 2033, up from 15.9%, past Italy in 2027.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/netherlands-renewables-2026-09): 2027 (Satoria forecast: Netherlands passes Italy, on our central path)
- [In our forecast Italy goes past America in 2029 and reaches the 100% top of this measure by 2034.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/italy-online-past-america-2026-09): 2029 (Satoria forecast: Italy passes the United States, on our central path)
- [The average German week drifts from 33.5 hours to 32.1 by 2034, the biggest fall of ten countries.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/germany-shorter-week-2026-09): 32.1 hours (Satoria forecast: Germany, 2034)
- [Food in Poland climbs from 180 points to 296 by 2035 on our path. The band is wider than the move.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/food-prices-quiet-climb-2026-09): 296.3 (Satoria forecast: Poland, 2035 - index points)
- [Spain and Poland both go under one child per woman in 2029. Poland reaches 0.83 in 2034.](https://www.satoria.ai/stories/fewer-than-one-child-2026-09): 2029 (Satoria forecast: Spain and Poland are both under one child per woman)

## Country pages
- One country: https://www.satoria.ai/country/{slug} (e.g. /country/turkey, /country/kenya). An ISO3 or ISO2 code redirects to the slug, so /country/TUR and /country/TR both land on /country/turkey.
- The list of country pages: https://www.satoria.ai/countries. "Countries with Satoria forecasts" always means countries with at least one forecast of their own; the 204 figure counts countries with any data in the database and is never a forecast claim.
- Country data: https://satoria-pipeline-production.up.railway.app/api/country/{ISO3}

## Key pages
- [Satoria vs the IMF and World Bank](https://www.satoria.ai/benchmark): where the monthly update beats institutional forecasts, and where it does not.
- [How accurate Satoria is](https://www.satoria.ai/accuracy)
- [Methodology](https://www.satoria.ai/methodology)
- [All stories](https://www.satoria.ai/stories)

## Public JSON API (read-only, CORS open)
- Stories list: https://satoria-pipeline-production.up.railway.app/api/stories?limit=24 (follow nextCursor); one story with every claim, source and frozen forecast: https://satoria-pipeline-production.up.railway.app/api/stories/{slug}
- Forecast for an indicator and country: https://satoria-pipeline-production.up.railway.app/api/forecast/{indicator_id}?country={ISO3}
- Site statistics: https://satoria-pipeline-production.up.railway.app/api/site/stats
- Who the numbers come from (providers, datasets, links to the originals, last successful fetch; every count defined): https://satoria-pipeline-production.up.railway.app/api/sources
- Benchmark evidence (IMF, World Bank, mechanical nowcast) with a versioned manifest: https://satoria-pipeline-production.up.railway.app/api/benchmark/institutions
- Latest model run summary, incl. monthly IMF updates per country (imf_update.series): https://satoria-pipeline-production.up.railway.app/api/ml/v7/latest
- How published story forecasts are settled: https://satoria-pipeline-production.up.railway.app/api/story-resolutions

## Optional
- Sitemap: https://www.satoria.ai/sitemap.xml