In 2009 the Philippines had 3.38 children per woman. By 2034 the central path reaches 1.62.

Satoria's forecast

Satoria forecast for Philippines: children per woman 1.62 children per woman in 2034, down from 1.89 in 2024 - could go either way. 80% range 1.12 to 1.99.

Indonesia is the last of the five to cross.

Our central path puts Indonesia at 2.1 children per woman in 2025, just under the line. By 2034 it has Brazil at 1.5, the Philippines at 1.62, Vietnam at 1.68, India at 1.84 and Indonesia at 1.96. Vietnam has been under the line the whole time.

This is not a count of babies born last year.

The World Bank defines it as the children a woman would have if she lived through all her childbearing years at the rates measured in that one year. It shapes school places, rents and who pays for pensions later. It says nothing about any one family.

Four of these five countries are already under the line.

The newest measured year for all five is 2024. India is at 1.96 children per woman, Vietnam at 1.9, the Philippines at 1.89 and Brazil at 1.61. Indonesia is at 2.12. The United Nations puts the replacement level at 2.1 and says most countries are already below it.

Where do the Philippines land in 2034?

The Philippines had 3.38 children per woman in 2009 and 1.89 in 2024, a fall of about one and a half children in fifteen measured years. Move the slider to where you think our model puts it ten years on, then see the answer and the range.

A flat decade is inside every one of these ranges.

Each published range for 2034 still contains the country's own 2024 value: 1.61 to 2 for India, 1.71 to 2.2 for Indonesia, 1.4 to 1.93 for Vietnam, 1.27 to 1.68 for Brazil. So the direction is the finding, not the level.

Indonesia's next figure is the one that settles it.

Our path has Indonesia at 2.1 children per woman in 2025. If it comes in above 2.1 instead, the last of these five is still above the line and we were early. If the Philippines stops near 1.89, our steep line was wrong, and we will say so in our public record.

Where these five countries stand

The newest measured year for all five of these countries is 2024. India is at 1.962 children per woman, Vietnam at 1.895, the Philippines at 1.894, Brazil at 1.614 and Indonesia at 2.115.

The United Nations puts the level needed to keep a population the same size over the long term, without migration, at 2.1 live births per woman, and says more than half of all countries and areas are already below it. Four of these five are. That is not a verdict on anything: it is arithmetic about generations, and migration can change the result.

It helps to know what the number is. The World Bank defines it as the children a woman would have if she lived through all her childbearing years at the rates measured in that single year. Nobody's actual life is in there.

The Philippines moved furthest

In 2009 the Philippines had 3.376 children per woman. In 2024 it had 1.894. That is a fall of about one and a half children in fifteen measured years, the largest of the five, and it ends with the Philippines below India's 1.962.

Vietnam is the opposite case and it is worth holding next to it: 1.92 in 2009 and 1.895 in 2024. It has been under the replacement level for the whole period and has barely moved.

Our central path takes the Philippines to 1.6167 by 2034. The published range runs from 1.1224 to 1.9902, and the top of that range is roughly today's value, so a decade of no change is inside what we allow.

What our model says next

Indonesia is the only one of the five still above the line in the measured data, and it is the one to watch: our central path puts it at 2.0976 children per woman in 2025, just under 2.1.

By 2034 the central paths put Brazil at 1.4993, the Philippines at 1.6167, Vietnam at 1.6837, India at 1.8379 and Indonesia at 1.9628. The order matters less than the fact that every line points the same way.

Satoria's yearly model for this measure is built on the World Bank fertility series. On data held out from fitting and model choice, across 51 country series, its errors were 45% smaller than assuming no change. That is the weakest of the health and population measures we publish, and the ranges show it: every one of the five for 2034 still contains the country's own 2024 value.