What our forecasts turned up

46 of 46 published stories.

• 161.9 Canada, 2035 - index (2010 = 100) Canadian housing is near its 2016 real-price level. Our 2035 path still misses late 2021. Canada has given back much of its real-price boom. The forecast asks what comes next, not whether today's buyer can afford it. 1 country · North America
• 1.8 Morocco, 2035 - % a year Morocco's prices rose 0.7% in 2025, less than in Canada. Our path keeps Morocco under 2% a year to 2035. Prices in Morocco rose 0.7% in 2025 and 1% in 2024. In Egypt they rose 14.1%. Prices are still going up in both, at very different speeds. 5 countries · Africa, North America and more
• 66.8 Kenya, 2033 - points out of 100 Kenya's health coverage score fell to 49 out of 100 in 2020. Our path has it at 67 in 2033. Kenya's health coverage score slid from 56 to 49 out of 100 between 2017 and 2020. It is back to 57, above where it stood before the fall. 1 country · Africa
• 52.0 Brazil, 2033 - % of final energy use Half of Brazil's energy came from renewable sources in 2023. America's share was 12%. Brazil got 50% of all the energy it used from renewable sources in 2023. America got 12%, and the world 18%. 2 countries · North America and South America
• 2027 Egypt's central path goes below the American one Egypt more than halved its deaths in childbirth since 2008. Our path puts it below America in 2027. Egypt went from 36.1 to 17 deaths of mothers per 100,000 live births in fifteen years. America went from 13.8 to 16.6. 3 countries · Africa, Asia and more
• 22.2 Poland, 2034 - % of adults Poland's share of adults with obesity barely moves by 2034. Chile's reaches one adult in two. About 21.8% of Polish adults had obesity in 2024. Our central path has 22.2% in 2034. Chile's goes from 40.5% to 50%. 3 countries · Europe, North America and more
• 0.08 Poland, 2034 - kg per dollar Poland halves the carbon in each dollar of output again by 2033, on our central path. Poland emitted 0.17 kg of carbon dioxide for each dollar of output in 2024, down from 0.31 kg in 2009. Our central path halves it again by 2033. 1 country · Europe
• 2029 Central paths meet in 2029 Poland is losing people and Peru is gaining them. Our path has Peru ahead from about 2029. Poland had 36.4 million people in 2025. Peru had 34.6 million. On our central path Peru is the bigger of the two from about 2029. 2 countries · Europe and South America
• 21.9 United States, 2035 - % of the population America could pass 20% aged 65+ in 2029. The shift reaches beyond retirement. An ageing country can still grow. Our forecast concerns the age mix, not the size of America. 1 country · North America
• 160.4 2030, annual-average forecast, index (2010 = 100) Our US real-price forecast could regain the 2024 average in 2030, or Q4 2024's level in 2031. A house can rise in dollars while losing ground to inflation. Even the recovery year depends on the comparison you choose. 1 country · North America
• 5.98 United States, 2034 - per 1,000 births America's lowest child death rate was 2022. Satoria's central forecast reaches 6 per 1,000 by 2034. America's deaths before age five fell from 7.6 per 1,000 births in 2009 to 6.46 in 2022. Then they rose twice. The central path reaches 6 by 2034. 1 country · North America
• 15.0% United States, 2033 America reaches about 15% renewable energy in 2033, still under the world's 18% in 2023. America went from 6.85% renewable energy in 2008 to 12.3% in 2023. The world is already on 18%. Satoria's central forecast reaches about 15% in 2033. 1 country · North America
• 2030 China goes above the United States on the central paths China passes America in 2030 on health service coverage, and reaches 91 out of 100 by 2033. America scored 88 out of 100 on health service coverage in 2023 and China 85. China has climbed since 2008. Our central paths cross in 2030. 2 countries · Asia and North America
• 2030 Argentina goes above the United States on the central paths Argentina passes America in 2030 on adults living with obesity. By 2034 it is 47 in every 100. Argentina had 24 adults in every 100 living with obesity in 2009 and 37.2 in 2024. America rose far less. Our central paths cross in 2030. 2 countries · the Americas
• 21.8 Thailand, 2034 - % of people Thailand had 8.58 people in 100 aged 65 and over in 2010. By 2034 it is level with America. Thailand had 8.58 people in every 100 aged 65 and over in 2010, and 16 in 2025. America is ageing more slowly. By 2034 our paths meet. 5 countries · Asia and the Americas
• 2026 Turkey goes below the United States on the central paths Turkey drops below America on births per 1,000 people in 2026. By 2034 it reaches 5.86. Turkey had 17.6 births per 1,000 people in 2009 and 11 in 2024. America fell far less. Our central paths cross them in 2026. 4 countries · Asia and the Americas
• 2030 Indonesia passes Denmark on the central paths Indonesia's share of adults living with obesity doubled since 2009. It passes Denmark's share around 2030. Indonesia had 4.52 adults in every 100 living with obesity in 2009, and 11.8 in 2024. Denmark barely moved. The lines cross around 2030. 5 countries · Asia, Europe and the Americas
• 2028 Egypt passes Japan on the central paths Egypt overtakes Japan in 2028 on our path. Japan has now shrunk for fourteen years running. Japan's population has fallen fourteen years in a row. Egypt had 118.4 million people in mid-2025, Japan 123.4 million. Our paths cross them in 2028. 4 countries · Africa and Asia
• 1.62 Philippines, 2034 - children per woman In 2009 the Philippines had 3.38 children per woman. By 2034 the central path reaches 1.62. In 2009 the Philippines had 3.38 children per woman. In 2024 it had 1.89, fewer than India. Four of these five are already under the line of 2.1. 6 countries · Asia, North America and more
• 93.7 India, 2032 - % of people India is now where America was in 2009. On our path it passes nine in ten around 2031. In 2009, 71 people in every 100 in America were online. India got to 70 in 2025. Egypt and Indonesia made the same jump. Nigeria is at 41. 5 countries · Africa, Asia and more
• 32.6 South Africa, 2034 - per 1,000 births India's rate falls every year since 2009. South Africa's low point was 2021. It misses the line in 2028. India and South Africa both had about 64 deaths before age five per 1,000 live births in 2009. One has fallen every year since. The other has not. 4 countries · Asia and Africa
• 9.05 India, 2034 - per 1,000 births India reaches the newborn target in 2030. The Philippines is still short of it in 2034. One line, 12 newborn deaths per 1,000 births. Three of these four countries get under it. One has hardly moved in fifteen years. 4 countries · Asia and North Africa
• 105.9 France, 2035 - index (2010 = 100) A French home costs less than in 2010, and our forecast has it back above that price by 2035. France climbs from 99 to 106 by 2035 on our central path, back above its 2010 price from 2027. The 80% range for 2035 runs from 83 to 143. 9 countries · Europe and North America
• 2.0% Italy, 2036 Energy bills stop jumping in 2027. Our model has Italy near 2% and Poland above 5% out to 2036. Italy's energy bill goes from 17.1% more this year to about 2.6% next year, and stays near 2% to 2036. Poland stays above 5%. 9 countries · Europe and North America
• 10.4% Poland, 2036 Poland's school and nursery prices speed up to about 10.4% a year by 2036, faster than energy from 2027. Ten years of that pace add up. A 1,200 zloty nursery fee becomes about 2,830 zloty by 2036: our arithmetic on our own path, not a second forecast. 9 countries · Europe and North America
• 5.6% United Kingdom, 2035 Our model has Britain at 6 in 100 without work in 2030 and 5.6 in 2035. Poland falls to 3. Britain goes from 4.9 people in 100 without work to about 6 in 2030 and 5.6 in 2035, above today all the way. Poland is the only fall. 9 countries · Europe and North America
• 2031 Spain clearly ahead of South Korea Spain has 2.3 million fewer people than South Korea. Our model has Spain in front from 2031. Spain is 2.3 million behind South Korea. On our central path the two are level in 2030, and Spain is clearly ahead from 2031. 6 countries · Europe and Asia
• 164.7 United States, 2035 - index (2010 = 100) Our forecast: house prices in the United States are higher in 2035, after inflation. Savings pay 0.37%. Two questions, one pot of money: what the bank pays, and what a home costs. Our index for the United States rises from 156.4 now to about 164.7 by 2035. 7 countries · Europe and North America
• 2031 Romania passes the United States A baby's first year is safer in Romania than in America from 2031, on our central path. America has been stuck at 5.5 deaths per 1,000 births since 2023. Romania's number is falling fast. 6 countries · Europe and North America
• 2027 Poland passes Germany Germany leads Poland by 0.02 newborn deaths per 1,000 births. Poland goes in front in 2027. Poland's newborn deaths fall every year and Germany's have barely moved. Eurostat already has them level. 6 countries · Europe and North America
• 99.2 Netherlands, 2035 - % of the population The Dutch are at 96 in 100 in a town or city. Our model says 99 in 100 by 2035. Ninety-six in a hundred already live in a town or city. On our central path the Netherlands reaches 99 by 2035. 7 countries · Europe, North America and more
• 2033 South Korea passes Italy One in four Italians is already 65 or over. South Korea reaches that share in 2033 on our forecast. Italy is at 25.1% aged 65 or over and South Korea at 20.3%, climbing four times faster. 6 countries · Europe and Asia
• 84.7 Italy, 2035 - 2010 = 100 Nine years of rises in our forecast leave Italian houses below their 2010 price in 2035. After inflation an Italian house costs about a quarter less than in 2010. In Portugal it costs twice as much. 6 countries · Europe
• 55.8 million France, 2034 - tonnes France's grain harvest reaches about 56 million tonnes in 2034. Shop food prices rise a third to two thirds. Satoria's ten-year forecast puts France's grain harvest at about 56 million tonnes in 2034, barely up on the poor 2024, while shop food prices climb far more. 5 countries · Europe
• 1.95 Poland, 2034 - per 1,000 births Newborn deaths in Poland fall from 2.47 to 1.95 per 1,000 births by 2034. Britain is the exception. Poland's newborn deaths fall from 2.47 per 1,000 births in 2024 to 1.95 by 2034 on our path. Britain drifts the other way, 3.04 to 3.26. 6 countries · Europe and North America
• 44,856 Czechia, 2035 - US dollars Czechia has caught Japan and South Korea on output per person. Too close to call a winner. Thirty-four dollars apart. Our path puts Czechia in front from 2026, by 259 dollars out of 36,500. That is a dead heat, not an overtaking. 6 countries · Europe and Asia
• 52.9 million Spain, 2035 - people Spain gains 3.5 million people by 2035 while Poland loses 850,000, and births explain neither. Poland has 6.9 births per 1,000 people and Spain 6.5. Arrivals and departures decide the population, not births. 6 countries · Europe and North America
• 9.55 United States, 2034 - per 1,000 people Spain had more babies in 2025. Our model still puts America at more than twice its rate by 2034. Spain had more babies last year. On our central path, America has more than twice as many per person by 2034. 6 countries · Europe and North America
• 2.23 Italy, 2034 - per 1,000 births Sweden is the safest place for a small child. Italy closes nine tenths of the gap and stops. Almost everywhere here, fewer small children die every year. Italy nearly catches Sweden, then runs out of road. One country has stopped moving. 7 countries · Europe and North America
• 2034 Poland passes Italy Poland could pass Spain in 2027 and Italy around 2034, in output per person. Output per person, adjusted for prices. Not pay. A central forecast, so the timing is uncertain. 6 countries · Europe
• 20.2% Sweden, 2034 Sweden climbs to 20.2% of adults obese by 2034. Spain, France and Italy keep falling. Sweden goes from 17.5% of adults in 2024 to 20.2% in 2034. Spain falls to 12.4%, and the United States climbs to about 44.3%. 1 country · North America
• 2027 Netherlands passes Italy, on our central path Renewables reach 23% of all the energy the Netherlands uses by 2033, up from 15.9%, past Italy in 2027. Dutch renewables climb from 15.9% of all energy in 2023 to 23% in 2033 on our central path, past Italy in 2027. 8 countries · Europe and North America
• 2029 Italy passes the United States, on our central path In our forecast Italy goes past America in 2029 and reaches the 100% top of this measure by 2034. America rises far more slowly, from 94.7% in 2024 to 97.7% in 2034, and Italy goes past it in 2029. 4 countries · Europe and North America
• 32.1 hours Germany, 2034 The average German week drifts from 33.5 hours to 32.1 by 2034, the biggest fall of ten countries. A Pole already works 5.4 hours a week more than a German. By 2034 our forecast makes it 6.1. 2 countries · Europe
• 296.3 Poland, 2035 - index points Food in Poland climbs from 180 points to 296 by 2035 on our path. The band is wider than the move. The rate is falling and the bill is not. Our path takes food in Poland from 180 points to 296 by 2035, close to three times the 2015 base of 100. 8 countries · Europe and North America
• 2029 Spain and Poland are both under one child per woman Spain and Poland both go under one child per woman in 2029. Poland reaches 0.83 in 2034. Our central paths put Spain and Poland under one child per woman in 2029, and Poland at 0.83 by 2034. No country in western Europe has held that in peacetime. 8 countries · Europe and North America