Morocco's prices rose 0.7% in 2025, less than in Canada. Our path keeps Morocco under 2% a year to 2035.

Satoria's forecast

Satoria forecast for Morocco: annual inflation 1.8% a year in 2035, up from 0.7% in 2025 - could go either way. 80% range -1.8% to 11.8%.

About 1.8% a year, and a range that covers almost anything.

Our central path has the pace at 1.2% in 2026, 1.7% in 2030 and 1.8% in 2035, a little faster than 2025 and still slow. The published range for 2035 runs from -1.8% to 11.8%. The top of that is where Egypt was in 2025 and the bottom would mean prices falling.

Prices still went up. They just went up slowly.

This measures speed, not level. A figure of 0.7% means the same basket cost 0.7% more than a year before, so it is still rising. Morocco's prices jumped 6.7% in 2022 and 6.1% in 2023, and that jump is still in the price. A slow year adds to it rather than undoing it.

The slowest prices in this list are in North Africa.

In 2025 the same shopping cost 0.7% more in Morocco than a year earlier. In Canada it cost 2.1% more, in South Africa 3.2%, in Brazil 5% and in Egypt 14.1%. Two North African neighbours, twenty times apart on the same measure.

How fast are Moroccan prices rising in 2035?

Morocco spent fifteen years under 2% a year, then had two years above 6%, then came back down. Move the slider to where you think our model puts the pace ten years out.

2022 is the reason to distrust the narrow middle of this forecast.

Morocco went from under 2% to 6.7% in a single year, driven by food and energy arriving from outside the country. Our model beats assuming no change by 9% on this series and its ranges held the truth about 58 times in 100 instead of 80. A repeat of 2022 sits comfortably inside the published range.

Watch pay, not only the price tag.

A slow rise in prices only helps if what people earn is not rising even more slowly. This series says nothing about pay, and it says nothing about which parts of the basket moved. The next Moroccan reading will tell you whether 2024 and 2025 were the new normal or a pause.

Seven countries, one measure

The World Bank publishes one number per country per year: how much more the same basket of goods and services cost than a year earlier. For 2025 it reports 0.7% for Morocco, 2.1% for Canada, 2.8% for New Zealand, 2.9% for Australia, 3.2% for South Africa, 5% for Brazil and 14.1% for Egypt.

Morocco is the slowest of the seven, and not by a small margin. It is under half the Canadian figure and about a twentieth of the Egyptian one.

This is not new for Morocco. Its readings go 1% in 2010, then a long stretch under 2% a year, then 6.7% in 2022 and 6.1% in 2023, then 1% in 2024 and 0.7% in 2025. Outside those two years, every reading in the fifteen measured years here has been under 2%.

A slow year does not undo a fast one

The measure is a speed. The World Bank defines it as the annual percentage change in the cost to the average consumer of acquiring a basket of goods and services.

So 0.7% in 2025 does not mean shopping got cheaper. It means it got 0.7% more expensive than the year before, and the year before that it got 1% more expensive, on top of the 6.1% of 2023 and the 6.7% of 2022. Those increases stayed in the price.

That is the gap between a statistic and a kitchen table. The pace of increase in Morocco is now among the slowest in this list, and the level is still above where it was in 2021. Both sentences are true at once.

What our model says next, and how much to trust it

Our central path has the Moroccan pace at 1.2% in 2026, rising gently to 1.7% in 2030 and 1.8% in 2035. Every year on that line sits between 1.2% and 1.8%, which is the long Moroccan normal rather than the 2022 shock.

The range around it is another matter. The published 80% band for 2035 runs from -1.8% to 11.8%. The bottom would be prices actually falling and the top is roughly where Egypt was in 2025. A band that wide is the model admitting that a year like 2022 can arrive without warning.

On data held out from fitting and model choice, across 62 country series, the model's errors were 9% smaller than assuming no change. Its 80% ranges held the true value in about 58 of every 100 held-out years, well short of the 80 they are drawn for. So even that very wide band is too narrow.