Renewables reach 23% of all the energy the Netherlands uses by 2033, up from 15.9%, past Italy in 2027.

Satoria's forecast

Satoria forecast for Netherlands: the share of energy that comes from renewable sources 23.0% in 2033, up from 15.9% in 2023 - could go either way. 80% range 13.9% to 31.3%.

Dutch renewables reach 23% of all energy by 2033.

Not electricity: all the energy the country uses, heating and transport included. It was 15.9% in 2023, and our central path passes Italy in 2027. The 80% range for 2033 runs from 13.9% to 31.3%, so read the direction before the level.

Energy is 14.3% dearer than a year ago.

Energy prices were 14.3% higher in August than a year earlier across the euro area, the biggest single push on prices. Making your own energy is the slow version of a smaller bill, and our path has the Dutch share rising to 23% by 2033.

Two true numbers about European energy: 54% and 26%.

On 18 September Eurostat said 54.1% of European Union electricity came from renewables. In July it said renewables were 26.2% of all the energy the Union uses, heating included. The 23% we forecast for the Netherlands in 2033 is that second, wider kind of number, and it is rising.

And the United States in 2033?

The same measure, all the energy a country uses. America was on 12.3% in 2023 and its share also rises on our path to 2033. How far does it get?

The Dutch climb is fast, and the spread barely narrows.

About seven points of Dutch energy moves to renewables in ten years, rising to 23% in 2033. Europe's 2030 goal of 42.5% needs more than that everywhere. Our 80% range is wide, so read the direction first.

Three things that decide this.

A hopeful story with one weak spot: the measured series stops in 2023, and our path climbs on to 23% in 2033. Here is where to check us:

Two true numbers, one of them useful

On 18 September 2026 Eurostat reported that 54.1% of European Union electricity came from renewables in the second quarter. It is a remarkable number, and it is only about electricity.

Two months earlier the same office published the wider figure: renewables were 26.2% of all the energy the Union used in 2025, heating and transport included. Everything below is that second kind of number.

Euro-area energy prices in August 2026 were 14.3% higher than a year earlier, and energy alone added 1.29 percentage points to the area's 3.2% inflation. Making your own energy is the dull version of a smaller bill.

What Satoria's model says happens next

In 2023, the last measured year, renewables were 15.9% of the energy the Netherlands used, behind Italy's 18.5% and Poland's 17.1%. This is the country routinely described as Europe's slow one.

Our central path has the Dutch line climbing to 19.9% in 2027, passing Italy's 19.6%, and reaching 23% by 2033. About seven points in ten years: only Sweden adds more, and it starts from a far higher share.

On data held out from fitting and model choice across 64 country series this model's errors were 19% smaller than assuming no change. It did not beat that mark in every series, so read it as reliable on average rather than everywhere.

The spread is the story as much as the race

Satoria's central paths for 2033 run from Sweden on 67.8% down to the United States on 15%. Germany reaches 27.1%, Spain 26.7%, the Netherlands 23%, Poland 21.6%, Italy 21.1%.

Put that next to the 42.5% target for 2030 and the sum is not encouraging. If everyone moved at the Dutch pace the target would be in reach. Nobody else here does.

Where we are weakest

The measured data stop in 2023, so everything from 2024 onwards is our forecast rather than a fact, in the fastest three years of building in European history. If the next United Nations release shows the Netherlands well above our 2024 line, the crossing has already happened and we were late.

The 80% range for 2033 runs from 13.9% to 31.3% and still contains the 15.9% of 2023. The ten-year direction is our result; no single year on the way is settled.

Why it lands on a bill

None of this is abstract if you have opened an energy bill this year. Countries that make more of their own energy have less of it to buy in, at whatever the price happens to be. On our path the Netherlands has 23% of its energy covered that way by 2033, and the United States 15%.