Food in Poland climbs from 180 points to 296 by 2035 on our path. The band is wider than the move.

Satoria's forecast

Satoria forecast for Poland: food prices, whole basket 296.3 index points in 2035, up from 180.3 in March 2026 - could go either way. 80% range 0.0 to 1,067.

Food in Poland reaches 296 points in 2035. Not one line here turns down.

The index is 100 in 2015, and 180 in March 2026. Satoria's central path climbs to 296 by 2035, close to three times the 2015 base. The 80% range for that year runs from 0 to 1067 points, wider than the move itself, so the central line is a best guess and nothing firmer.

A falling rate is not a falling bill.

Inflation is a speed, not a position. Prices keep rising, only more slowly, and the earlier rises stay in the shelf price. Poland's index reads 180 in March 2026 against 100 in 2015, and our path has it at 296 in 2035.

Three true numbers about food, and none of them is the bill.

Food in the euro area rose 1.1% over the year to August, British food 1.3%, and Swedish food fell 6.6%. Those are rates of change. The level behind them is a yearly index our path lifts to 296 points in Poland by 2035.

Sweden's food index slipped this year. Where does it land in 2035?

Sweden's yearly index went from 147.5 in 2025 to 146.7 in March 2026, its first fall in sixteen years. Our path still has it climbing to 2035. How far?

Eight countries, eight climbs. Only the steepness differs.

Poland ends 2035 at 296 points, more than anywhere else here, and the United States at 172, the lowest. Nowhere on these paths does the index turn down, and every one of them carries a very wide 80% range.

Britain's food makers say the quiet ends in December.

The Food and Drink Federation forecast in September that British food would be 3.9% dearer by December and peak at 6.4% next July. Polish farmers are paid 12.3% less than a year ago. Either way our path climbs to 296 points in Poland by 2035.

Three numbers that decide whether the calm lasts.

One of them is not the inflation rate. Watch the level, the energy bill behind it, and the price the farmer gets. Our yearly path still climbs to 296 points in Poland by 2035.

What happened

Statistics Sweden reported in September that food and soft drinks were 6.6% cheaper than a year earlier, leaving Swedish inflation at 0.3%, the lowest in the European Union. British food was up 1.3% over the year, its smallest push on inflation since September 2021, and euro-area food, drink and tobacco up 1.1% against 3.2% a year before.

In Poland the farm end has swung further: farmers were paid 12.3% less for their basic produce in August than a year earlier. Energy has taken food's place, adding 1.29 percentage points to the euro area's yearly rate against food's 0.22.

Why the bill does not feel like that

Inflation is a speed, not a position. When the yearly rate slows, the earlier rises stay in the shelf price. On the scale where 2015 = 100, the Polish food basket stood at 116.6 in 2020 and 180.3 in March 2026; Germany went from 108.3 to 151.2 and the United States from 103.7 to 131.7.

Britain's Food and Drink Federation puts the same thing in one line: food and drink prices have risen nearly 40% since 2020.

What Satoria's model says next

Not one central path turns down. Poland climbs from 180.3 points in March 2026 to 296.3 in 2035, close to three times the 2015 base of 100. Sweden, in the middle of its own price fall, climbs from 146.7 to 215.1. Germany reaches 220.7, the United Kingdom 203.6, Spain 200, Canada 180.4, France 180.4 and the United States 172.3.

On data held out from fitting and model choice across 50 country series this model's errors were 19% smaller than assuming no change, and it beat that benchmark in nearly every series. But the 80% ranges are enormous, from 0 to 1066.8 index points for Poland in 2035, so read the central line as a best guess and not a settled level.

The next twelve months are the calm part

For anything inside a year, the monthly American series is the better guide: about 78% more accurate than simply assuming nothing changes, on the United States alone, so we grade it moderate. It has American food prices rising about 2.7% over the year to December 2026 and about 2.2% by June 2027.

The argument against that calm comes from the people who make the food. The Food and Drink Federation blames energy, transport, packaging and this summer's heat. Farming is not on the list: Polish prices at the farm gate are down 12.3% on the year.