Nine years of rises in our forecast leave Italian houses below their 2010 price in 2035.

Satoria's forecast

Satoria forecast for Italy: house prices after inflation, against 2010 84.7 2010 = 100 in 2035, up from 75.7 in 2026 - could go either way. 80% range 62.6 to 111.4.

Rising for nine years, and still below 2010.

Satoria's model runs on Bank for International Settlements data, tested on five years it had never seen.

Fifteen years of housing luck, decided by country.

Two people the same age, one in Lisbon and one in Milan, have had opposite decades.

One European country's houses never recovered from 2010.

Central bank figures put Italy at 75.7 against a 2010 level of 100, after inflation. Portugal is at 203.8. Nobody publishes where Italy's climb ends.

Where is Italy in 2035?

It starts at 75.7 and rises every single year in our forecast. The 2010 level is 100.

Twenty-four points, nine years.

Italy needs about 3.1% a year after inflation to get back to 2010. Its statistics office's latest reading is 4.0% before inflation.

Three numbers that will settle this.

Our path is on the record now. Here is what would move it:

What the official numbers already say

The Bank for International Settlements keeps a house price index for each country, with 2010 set to 100 and inflation taken out. At the start of 2026 Italy stands at 75.7.

Portugal, in the same table, stands at 203.8. Italy is the only one of the six below the line.

This is not a story about prices falling now. Italy's statisticians reported prices up 4.0% on the year in the second quarter of 2026. Italy is climbing out of a very deep hole.

What Satoria's model says happens next

On Satoria's central path Italy rises every year to 2035 and finishes at 84.7: nine straight years of gains, still 15 points short of 2010.

Portugal finishes at 218.8, so a Portuguese house stays more than twice its 2010 price for the whole decade. The gap widens, from 128 points today to 134 in 2035.

Poland is the quiet surprise: from 122.9 to 121.1, the only one of the six that ends lower than it starts.

What the number is not

This index is not a price. It answers one question per country: does a house cost more than it did in 2010, once inflation is out.

And the honest caveat: for 2035 Italy's 80% range runs from 62.6 to 111.4. The top of that is above 100, so our own numbers admit Italy could get back.

What it would feel like

Two people turned 25 in 2010, one in Lisbon and one in Milan. The Lisbon one has watched the price of the thing they were saving for more than double; the Milan one has watched it drift below where it started. Neither of them decided anything.

What could change the course

Italy has 24 index points to make up in nine years, about 3.1% a year after inflation, and our central path gives it about 1.2%. The Italian statistics office's latest reading, before inflation, is 4.0%. If that pace holds and inflation stays near 2%, Italy reaches 2010 in the early 2030s and this story is wrong.