What our forecasts turned up

15 of 46 published stories.

• 66.8 Kenya, 2033 - points out of 100 Kenya's health coverage score fell to 49 out of 100 in 2020. Our path has it at 67 in 2033. Kenya's health coverage score slid from 56 to 49 out of 100 between 2017 and 2020. It is back to 57, above where it stood before the fall. 1 country · Africa
• 2027 Egypt's central path goes below the American one Egypt more than halved its deaths in childbirth since 2008. Our path puts it below America in 2027. Egypt went from 36.1 to 17 deaths of mothers per 100,000 live births in fifteen years. America went from 13.8 to 16.6. 3 countries · Africa, Asia and more
• 22.2 Poland, 2034 - % of adults Poland's share of adults with obesity barely moves by 2034. Chile's reaches one adult in two. About 21.8% of Polish adults had obesity in 2024. Our central path has 22.2% in 2034. Chile's goes from 40.5% to 50%. 3 countries · Europe, North America and more
• 5.98 United States, 2034 - per 1,000 births America's lowest child death rate was 2022. Satoria's central forecast reaches 6 per 1,000 by 2034. America's deaths before age five fell from 7.6 per 1,000 births in 2009 to 6.46 in 2022. Then they rose twice. The central path reaches 6 by 2034. 1 country · North America
• 2030 China goes above the United States on the central paths China passes America in 2030 on health service coverage, and reaches 91 out of 100 by 2033. America scored 88 out of 100 on health service coverage in 2023 and China 85. China has climbed since 2008. Our central paths cross in 2030. 2 countries · Asia and North America
• 2030 Argentina goes above the United States on the central paths Argentina passes America in 2030 on adults living with obesity. By 2034 it is 47 in every 100. Argentina had 24 adults in every 100 living with obesity in 2009 and 37.2 in 2024. America rose far less. Our central paths cross in 2030. 2 countries · the Americas
• 2030 Indonesia passes Denmark on the central paths Indonesia's share of adults living with obesity doubled since 2009. It passes Denmark's share around 2030. Indonesia had 4.52 adults in every 100 living with obesity in 2009, and 11.8 in 2024. Denmark barely moved. The lines cross around 2030. 5 countries · Asia, Europe and the Americas
• 32.6 South Africa, 2034 - per 1,000 births India's rate falls every year since 2009. South Africa's low point was 2021. It misses the line in 2028. India and South Africa both had about 64 deaths before age five per 1,000 live births in 2009. One has fallen every year since. The other has not. 4 countries · Asia and Africa
• 9.05 India, 2034 - per 1,000 births India reaches the newborn target in 2030. The Philippines is still short of it in 2034. One line, 12 newborn deaths per 1,000 births. Three of these four countries get under it. One has hardly moved in fifteen years. 4 countries · Asia and North Africa
• 2.0% Italy, 2036 Energy bills stop jumping in 2027. Our model has Italy near 2% and Poland above 5% out to 2036. Italy's energy bill goes from 17.1% more this year to about 2.6% next year, and stays near 2% to 2036. Poland stays above 5%. 9 countries · Europe and North America
• 2031 Romania passes the United States A baby's first year is safer in Romania than in America from 2031, on our central path. America has been stuck at 5.5 deaths per 1,000 births since 2023. Romania's number is falling fast. 6 countries · Europe and North America
• 2027 Poland passes Germany Germany leads Poland by 0.02 newborn deaths per 1,000 births. Poland goes in front in 2027. Poland's newborn deaths fall every year and Germany's have barely moved. Eurostat already has them level. 6 countries · Europe and North America
• 1.95 Poland, 2034 - per 1,000 births Newborn deaths in Poland fall from 2.47 to 1.95 per 1,000 births by 2034. Britain is the exception. Poland's newborn deaths fall from 2.47 per 1,000 births in 2024 to 1.95 by 2034 on our path. Britain drifts the other way, 3.04 to 3.26. 6 countries · Europe and North America
• 2.23 Italy, 2034 - per 1,000 births Sweden is the safest place for a small child. Italy closes nine tenths of the gap and stops. Almost everywhere here, fewer small children die every year. Italy nearly catches Sweden, then runs out of road. One country has stopped moving. 7 countries · Europe and North America
• 20.2% Sweden, 2034 Sweden climbs to 20.2% of adults obese by 2034. Spain, France and Italy keep falling. Sweden goes from 17.5% of adults in 2024 to 20.2% in 2034. Spain falls to 12.4%, and the United States climbs to about 44.3%. 1 country · North America