What our forecasts turned up
15 of 46 published stories.
- 2029 Central paths meet in 2029 Poland is losing people and Peru is gaining them. Our path has Peru ahead from about 2029. Poland had 36.4 million people in 2025. Peru had 34.6 million. On our central path Peru is the bigger of the two from about 2029. 2 countries · Europe and South America
- 21.9 United States, 2035 - % of the population America could pass 20% aged 65+ in 2029. The shift reaches beyond retirement. An ageing country can still grow. Our forecast concerns the age mix, not the size of America. 1 country · North America
- 21.8 Thailand, 2034 - % of people Thailand had 8.58 people in 100 aged 65 and over in 2010. By 2034 it is level with America. Thailand had 8.58 people in every 100 aged 65 and over in 2010, and 16 in 2025. America is ageing more slowly. By 2034 our paths meet. 5 countries · Asia and the Americas
- 2026 Turkey goes below the United States on the central paths Turkey drops below America on births per 1,000 people in 2026. By 2034 it reaches 5.86. Turkey had 17.6 births per 1,000 people in 2009 and 11 in 2024. America fell far less. Our central paths cross them in 2026. 4 countries · Asia and the Americas
- 2028 Egypt passes Japan on the central paths Egypt overtakes Japan in 2028 on our path. Japan has now shrunk for fourteen years running. Japan's population has fallen fourteen years in a row. Egypt had 118.4 million people in mid-2025, Japan 123.4 million. Our paths cross them in 2028. 4 countries · Africa and Asia
- 1.62 Philippines, 2034 - children per woman In 2009 the Philippines had 3.38 children per woman. By 2034 the central path reaches 1.62. In 2009 the Philippines had 3.38 children per woman. In 2024 it had 1.89, fewer than India. Four of these five are already under the line of 2.1. 6 countries · Asia, North America and more
- 93.7 India, 2032 - % of people India is now where America was in 2009. On our path it passes nine in ten around 2031. In 2009, 71 people in every 100 in America were online. India got to 70 in 2025. Egypt and Indonesia made the same jump. Nigeria is at 41. 5 countries · Africa, Asia and more
- 5.6% United Kingdom, 2035 Our model has Britain at 6 in 100 without work in 2030 and 5.6 in 2035. Poland falls to 3. Britain goes from 4.9 people in 100 without work to about 6 in 2030 and 5.6 in 2035, above today all the way. Poland is the only fall. 9 countries · Europe and North America
- 2031 Spain clearly ahead of South Korea Spain has 2.3 million fewer people than South Korea. Our model has Spain in front from 2031. Spain is 2.3 million behind South Korea. On our central path the two are level in 2030, and Spain is clearly ahead from 2031. 6 countries · Europe and Asia
- 99.2 Netherlands, 2035 - % of the population The Dutch are at 96 in 100 in a town or city. Our model says 99 in 100 by 2035. Ninety-six in a hundred already live in a town or city. On our central path the Netherlands reaches 99 by 2035. 7 countries · Europe, North America and more
- 2033 South Korea passes Italy One in four Italians is already 65 or over. South Korea reaches that share in 2033 on our forecast. Italy is at 25.1% aged 65 or over and South Korea at 20.3%, climbing four times faster. 6 countries · Europe and Asia
- 52.9 million Spain, 2035 - people Spain gains 3.5 million people by 2035 while Poland loses 850,000, and births explain neither. Poland has 6.9 births per 1,000 people and Spain 6.5. Arrivals and departures decide the population, not births. 6 countries · Europe and North America
- 9.55 United States, 2034 - per 1,000 people Spain had more babies in 2025. Our model still puts America at more than twice its rate by 2034. Spain had more babies last year. On our central path, America has more than twice as many per person by 2034. 6 countries · Europe and North America
- 2034 Poland passes Italy Poland could pass Spain in 2027 and Italy around 2034, in output per person. Output per person, adjusted for prices. Not pay. A central forecast, so the timing is uncertain. 6 countries · Europe
- 2029 Spain and Poland are both under one child per woman Spain and Poland both go under one child per woman in 2029. Poland reaches 0.83 in 2034. Our central paths put Spain and Poland under one child per woman in 2029, and Poland at 0.83 by 2034. No country in western Europe has held that in peacetime. 8 countries · Europe and North America