Spain and Poland both go under one child per woman in 2029. Poland reaches 0.83 in 2034.

Satoria's forecast

Satoria forecast for Spain: children per woman 0.9 children per woman in 2034, down from 1.1 in 2024 - could go either way. 80% range 0.64 to 1.16.

Spain and Poland are both under one child per woman from 2029.

Our central paths take Spain from 1.1 children per woman in 2024 to 0.99 in 2029 and 0.9 in 2034, and Poland from 1.14 to 0.97 and then 0.83. Poland falls hardest of the seven countries here. Britain moves least, 1.55 to 1.45. The 80% ranges are wider than the moves: Poland's for 2034 runs from 0.36 to 1.21.

Almost nobody in this data changed their mind about children.

Nearly one adult of childbearing age in five expects not to have the family they want. Asked why, they named a rent, a contract, a spare room, a nursery place.

Two statistics offices, one morning, the same headline.

Canada confirmed 1.26 children per woman, level with its all-time low. Poland counted 115,000 babies in six months, about a thousand fewer than last year.

Children per woman in Spain, 2034.

Spain was at 1.1 in 2024, already the lowest in western Europe. Card 1 has the answer; put the slider where you would have put it first.

The two lines that barely fall have something in common.

Britain and Sweden move least of all. Those are also the two places where money, housing and childcare come up least often as the reason.

Three numbers that will tell you if this is right.

Our forecast is on the record before the next national releases. Three numbers would move it.

What happened

Statistics Canada put the country's birth rate at 1.26 children per woman in 2025, exactly the all-time low it hit in 2024. Statistics Poland counted 115,000 live births in the first half of 2026, about 1,000 fewer than a year earlier, against 210,500 deaths.

Among 20 selected rich countries in 2025 the highest rate was the United States at 1.57 and the lowest South Korea at 0.8. All 20 sat below 2.1, the level at which a population replaces itself.

Why people say it is happening

UNFPA and YouGov asked more than 14,000 adults in 14 countries. Nearly one adult of childbearing age in five expects not to have the number of children they want. Most named money, 39%, then an insecure job at 21%, housing at 19%, childcare at 12%.

Sweden reported the lowest money barriers of any rich country asked: 19% named money, 6% housing. Italy had 29% on money and 30% on insecure work. The model has never been shown a rent.

What Satoria's model says next

Spain goes from 1.1 to 0.99 in 2029, then 0.9 in 2034. Poland goes from 1.14 to 0.97 in 2029, then 0.83. Poland's line already sits three thousandths under one in 2028, which we read as the line itself rather than a step past it, so 2029 is the first year we call both countries clearly under. No country in western Europe has stayed below that line outside a war.

The other five go two ways. Italy keeps sliding, 1.18 to 1.02, and ends just above the line. France loses 0.25 of a child, 1.61 to 1.36. Sweden drifts down to 1.29 and the United States falls to 1.49. The United Kingdom moves least of all, 1.55 to 1.45.

Sweden needs a warning label: the slow line our model draws is a turn, not a continuation of its own fall, which ran from 1.71 in 2019 to 1.43 in 2024. Britain's small decline is the same kind of call. Checked by hiding the last five years of every series from it, the model was 59% more accurate than assuming nothing changes, across 65 country series, but it is anchored on World Bank figures that stop in 2024.

The part that is already decided

Half of the sum is already fixed, because the people in it have been born. Satoria has the share of Poles aged 65 and over rising from 20.8% in 2025 to 26.5% in 2035, and Spain from 21.6% to 25.3%. This is the strongest model in the story, 81% more accurate than assuming no change. Everyone who will be 65 in 2035 is 56 today.

One odd thing sits in the Spanish data: births are going up. There were 184,990 in the first seven months of 2026, 1.4% more than in the same months of 2025. A rate per woman can fall while the number of babies rises, because the rate counts babies against the number of women of childbearing age.