India is now where America was in 2009. On our path it passes nine in ten around 2031.

Satoria's forecast

Satoria forecast for India: people using the internet, in every 100 93.7% of people in 2032, up from 70.0% in 2025 - clearly higher. 80% range 79.9% to 100.0%.

Three lines pass nine in ten. One does not.

On our central paths India reaches 90.5 people in every 100 in 2031, Indonesia 90.5 and Egypt 91.3. By 2032 Egypt is at 93.4 and Indonesia at 92.7, near the United States at 99.2. Nigeria gets to 65.6, from 41.2 in 2024.

India is where America was in 2009.

The measure counts anybody who used the internet in the last three months, on any device. In 2009, 71 people in every 100 in the United States did. India reached 70 in 2025, up from 7.5 in 2010. It counts use, not speed and not price.

6 billion people are online. 2.2 billion are not.

The International Telecommunication Union counted about 6 billion people using the internet in 2025, up from a revised 5.8 billion in 2024. It also counted 2.2 billion still offline, and says 96 per cent of them live in low- and middle-income countries. That is where the next ten years happen.

Where does India land in 2032?

India went from 7.5 people in every 100 online in 2010 to 70 in 2025. The usual argument is that the last people to come online are the hardest to reach. Move the slider to where you think our model puts India in 2032, then see the answer.

The top of these ranges is 100 because it cannot be higher.

Our published range for India in 2032 runs from 79.9 to 100 people in every 100. The ceiling is arithmetic, not confidence, so the useful end is the bottom. Even there India is far above today's 70. Nigeria's range is the honest one: 54.5 to 72.2.

2031 is the year to check.

If India, Indonesia and Egypt all come in above 90 people in every 100 in the 2031 figures, our paths held. If Nigeria is still under 60 by then, the gap we describe is wider than we said, and we will put that in our public record.

What the world measured

The International Telecommunication Union counted about 6 billion people using the internet in 2025, up from a revised 5.8 billion in 2024, and 2.2 billion still offline. That is roughly three-quarters of the world online.

Where those 2.2 billion live decides what happens next, and the answer is not spread evenly: 96 per cent of them are in low- and middle-income countries.

It is worth being clear about what the number counts. The World Bank definition is anybody who used the internet from any location in the last three months, on any device. It says nothing about speed, price, or whether the connection is good enough to work or study on.

India is sixteen years behind, and closing

In 2009, 71 people in every 100 in the United States used the internet. India reached 70 in 2025. On this one measure India is about sixteen years behind, and both of those numbers are measured rather than forecast.

India started the period at 7.5 people in every 100 in 2010. Indonesia was at 6.92 in 2009 and is at 72.7808. Egypt went from 20 to 74.6484. Nigeria went from 9.3 to 41.2114, which is a large gain and still the lowest of the five.

The United States is at 94.6938 and has been slowing for years, which is what the top of this curve looks like.

What our model says next

On Satoria's central paths India reaches 90.5487 people in every 100 in 2031, Indonesia 90.4832 and Egypt 91.2762. Three countries that were between 7 and 20 in every 100 fifteen years ago pass nine in ten within a year of each other.

By 2032 the central paths put India at 93.6768, Egypt at 93.3816 and Indonesia at 92.679, against 99.2276 for the United States. Nigeria reaches 65.6069, up from 41.2114 in 2024, and that is the gap the story is really about.

Two honest warnings. The upper end of the published range is 100 for four of the five countries, because a share of the population cannot be higher, so the bottom of each range carries the information: 79.9296 for India in 2032, and 54.5214 for Nigeria. And this is our thinnest test: on data held out from fitting and model choice, across 7 country series, the model's errors were 68% smaller than assuming no change. Seven series is fewer than for any of our health measures.