Indonesia's share of adults living with obesity doubled since 2009. It passes Denmark's share around 2030.

Satoria's forecast

Satoria forecast for Indonesia: adults living with obesity, in every 100 19.1% of adults in 2034, up from 11.8% in 2024 - clearly higher. 80% range 17.6% to 20.1%.

Indonesia crosses Denmark around 2030.

Our central paths put Indonesia at 16 adults in every 100 in 2030 and Denmark at 15.5. By 2034 Indonesia is at 19.1 and Denmark at 16.4. Brazil reaches 40.7 and Malaysia 30.4. Every line in this story points the same way.

It counts people in a category, not anybody's health.

The measure is the share of adults whose weight against their height puts them in the group the World Health Organization counts. It says nothing about one person. What it does track is how many people a health service will be planning around, and how fast that number moves.

This stopped being a rich country story.

The World Health Organization counted 890 million adults living with obesity in 2022, about 16% of adults worldwide, and says the share more than doubled between 1990 and 2022. It also says what was once treated as a high-income country problem is now rising in low- and middle-income countries.

Where does Indonesia land in 2034?

Indonesia had 4.52 adults in every 100 living with obesity in 2009 and 11.8 in 2024. It is still the lowest of these five. Move the slider to where you think our model puts it ten years on, then see the answer and the range.

These ranges are narrow, which cuts both ways.

Our published range for Indonesia in 2034 is 17.6 to 20.1 and for Denmark 15.5 to 17.3. Neither contains the country's 2024 value, so the direction is not really in question. The two ranges do overlap in 2030, so the crossing year could move by a year.

2030 is the year to check.

If Indonesia comes in above Denmark in the 2030 figures, our paths held. If Indonesia slows to under 15 adults in every 100 by then, the crossing is later than we said, and we will put that in our public record.

What the world measured

The World Health Organization counted 890 million adults living with obesity in 2022, about 16% of adults worldwide, and says the share more than doubled between 1990 and 2022.

The sentence in its fact sheet that matters most for this story is the one about geography: what was once considered a high-income country problem is now rising in low- and middle-income countries.

The measure needs stating carefully. It is the share of adults whose weight compared with their height puts them inside a category the World Health Organization defines, and the categories differ by age and sex. It is a count of people in a group. It is not a statement about any individual, and it is not a diagnosis.

Indonesia moved, Denmark did not

In 2009, 4.5157 adults in every 100 in Indonesia were counted in this group. In 2024 it was 11.8015. That is more than double in fifteen measured years.

Denmark went from 12.4702 to 14.3293 over exactly the same years, a rise of under two points. That is the part people find hard to believe, because the usual picture has rich countries at the top of this measure and rising.

Indonesia is not the fastest mover here. Brazil went from 16.9506 to 30.1384 and Malaysia from 14.3382 to 23.3285, both adding more than nine points. New Zealand is the highest of the five today at 34.0233. Indonesia is simply the one that is about to overtake a European country from far below.

What our model says next

On Satoria's central paths Indonesia reaches 16.0459 adults in every 100 in 2030 and Denmark 15.5363, so the lines cross around that year. By 2034 Indonesia is at 19.0674, above where Denmark is today, and Denmark is at 16.3649.

Nothing here goes down. Brazil reaches 40.7257 by 2034, New Zealand 38.0091 and Malaysia 30.379. That is the honest shape of this measure: across the countries we forecast, we do not have a line that turns.

This is the best tested of our yearly measures. On data held out from fitting and model choice, across 50 country series, the model's errors were 94% smaller than assuming no change, and the ranges are correspondingly narrow: 17.6037 to 20.1369 for Indonesia in 2034. None of the five ranges contains the country's own 2024 value. The Indonesian and Danish ranges do overlap in 2030 itself, which is why the crossing is 'around 2030' and not a date.