Sweden climbs to 20.2% of adults obese by 2034. Spain, France and Italy keep falling.

Satoria's forecast

Satoria forecast for Sweden: adults living with obesity, in every 100 20.2% in 2034, up from 17.5% in 2024 - clearly higher. 80% range 19.2% to 21.2%.

Sweden climbs to 20.2% of adults obese by 2034. Three countries keep falling.

Tap a country. Sweden goes from 17.5% of adults in 2024 to 20.2% in 2034, the fastest climb of any European country here. Spain falls to 12.4%, France to 10.2% and Italy to 13.2%. Germany and Poland add very little, and the United States climbs furthest of all, to about 44.3%.

This is about shops, prices and time. Not willpower.

One European country sits at 7% and another at 26.6%. People there are not built differently. What is near them, what it costs and how much time they have to cook is. That is why Satoria's path to 2034 has some countries climbing while others keep falling.

Half of Europe is overweight, and the map is splitting in two.

Eurostat published the 2025 figures on 4 September: 16.3% of European Union adults are obese and another 35.4% pre-obese. Between countries the gap is enormous, Italy 7% and Malta 26.6%. Satoria's path to 2034 has the two ends of that map pulling further apart, with Sweden climbing and Spain falling.

When does Spain drop below Italy?

The map to 2034 is above, with Sweden climbing and three countries falling. This is the crossing hidden inside it, and it is the one thing on that map the chart does not point at.

The model has never seen the new medicines.

Satoria's own path has Sweden and the United States still climbing to 2034. The last measured year is 2024, before the injections spread. If the cheaper American price from January 2027 reaches many more people, the real path could bend down faster than anything here shows.

Three things that will show which way this goes.

Sweden's climb to 2034 and Spain's fall both come from choices about food, prices and everyday life, and both can be turned around.

What Eurostat published

On 4 September 2026 Eurostat published the 2025 results of the European Health Interview Survey. Across the European Union, 16.3% of adults were obese and a further 35.4% pre-obese, so more than half of adults were overweight.

Malta was highest at 26.6% and Italy lowest at 7%: nearly four times as many adults, inside the same union.

What Satoria's model says happens next

Satoria's model is built on World Health Organization estimates of measured body mass index. On this indicator it is the strongest series we have: on data held out from fitting and model choice, across 64 country series, its errors were 94% smaller than assuming nothing changes.

It splits the map. Spain falls from 15.3% in 2024 to about 12.4% in 2034, the biggest move of the ten countries here. France and Italy fall more gently, and by about 2030 Spain drops below Italy. Germany and Poland add almost nothing.

On the other side, Sweden rises from 17.5% to 20.2%, the fastest climb of any European country here. The United States climbs further still, from 41% to about 44.3%.

Ten years is a long way out, and the ranges say so. Spain's 80% range for 2034 runs from 10.3% to 14.8%, which covers a steep fall and almost no fall at all. Sweden's runs from 19.2% to 21.2%, so the climb itself is the firmer part of this story.

Two rulers, two numbers

Eurostat puts Italy at 7% in 2025; the World Health Organization series the model runs on puts it near 14% in 2024. Eurostat asks people for their own height and weight, and people round kindly. Use either, never one next to the other.

What the model cannot see

The last measured year is 2024, so none of this is evidence about the new weight-loss medicines. The falls in Spain, France and Italy carry on an older trend.

Price is the reason to keep watching. In February 2026 Novo Nordisk said it would cut the American list price of Wegovy, Ozempic and Rybelsus to $675 a month from 1 January 2027, about 50% off. If that spreads, the first bend will show up where the medicines are affordable, not where the food is best.