Egypt more than halved its deaths in childbirth since 2008. Our path puts it below America in 2027.

Satoria's forecast

Satoria forecast for Egypt: mothers who die giving birth, per 100,000 births 12.9 per 100,000 live births in 2033, down from 17.0 in 2023 - could go either way. 80% range 0.0 to 72.5.

Our path has Egypt below the United States from 2027.

In 2026 our two lines are almost on top of each other, at 16.2 per 100,000 live births. In 2027 Egypt is at 15.6 and the United States at 16. India falls fastest, from 80.5 in 2023 to 55.3 in 2033. The ranges overlap, so read the order and not the year.

It is deaths per 100,000 live births, and it is an estimate.

This counts women who die in pregnancy, at birth or in the weeks after, per 100,000 live births. It is not a percentage and not a count. It is modelled, not counted one by one, so a revision can move a whole country's history. It is a national average, not a number about you.

Two lines that were not supposed to meet.

The World Health Organization counts over 700 women a day dying in 2023 from causes linked to pregnancy and childbirth, and the worldwide rate down about 40% since 2000. Inside that, Egypt went from 36.1 deaths per 100,000 live births in 2008 to 17 in 2023. The United States went from 13.8 to 16.6.

Which one was higher in 2023?

Egypt was more than twice the American level in 2008. Pick your answer, then see where the two ended up.

The bands are wide and our own test says they are still too narrow.

For 2033 the published range for Egypt runs from 0 to 72.5 deaths per 100,000 live births and the American one from 0 to 43.4. On held-out years these 80% ranges held the true value about 66 times in 100 instead of 80. A revision to the United Nations estimates could also move both histories at once.

Watch the next American reading, not the next Egyptian one.

Egypt has been falling for fifteen years and one more fall would surprise nobody. The open question is whether the American figure keeps coming down from its 2021 level or settles near where it is. That is the reading that decides whether these lines cross at all.

Two countries, opposite directions

The World Health Organization reports that over 700 women a day died in 2023 from preventable causes related to pregnancy and childbirth, about 260,000 across the year, and that the worldwide ratio fell by about 40% between 2000 and 2023. It also reports the gap: 346 deaths per 100,000 live births in low-income countries against 10 per 100,000 live births in high-income countries.

Egypt's own series moves with that worldwide fall. It recorded 36.1 deaths of mothers per 100,000 live births in 2008 and 17 in 2023. The path was not smooth. The figure rose to 31.2 in 2020 and 41.7 in 2021 before dropping to 24 in 2022.

The American series moves the other way. It was 13.8 in 2008, rose through most of the following decade, reached 31.2 in 2021 and came back to 16.6 in 2023. India's fall is the biggest of the three, from 222.7 to 80.5 over the same fifteen years, and it is still several times either of the other two.

What our model says next

Our central paths keep all three falling. In 2026 Egypt is at 16.2 deaths per 100,000 live births and the United States at 16.2 as well, with the American line still fractionally the lower one. In 2027 Egypt is at 15.6 against 16, and from there our lines do not change places again inside the window.

For 2033 the central figures are 12.9 for Egypt, 14.4 for the United States and 55.3 for India, all deaths per 100,000 live births.

The ranges are the honest part, and they are enormous. For 2033 the published 80% band runs from 0 to 72.5 for Egypt, from 0 to 43.4 for the United States and from 0 to 294.6 for India. Those bands sit on top of each other. The crossing is the most likely order of two lines, not a result.

How wrong this could be

On data held out from fitting and model choice, across 64 country series, the model's errors were 13% smaller than assuming no change. That is a real margin and a small one. Its 80% ranges held the true value in about 66 of every 100 held-out years, so the bands drawn here are narrower than the uncertainty they are meant to show.

The data underneath is a model too. These are estimates produced by a group of United Nations agencies together with the World Bank, not a count from a register, and they are revised. A revision that changes how deaths are attributed in one country changes its whole history at once.

The years 2020 and 2021 are the clearest warning in the chart. Both Egypt and the United States roughly doubled and then fell back, and the model fits a series that contains those two years. The last observation is from 2023, so 2024, 2025 and 2026 are already forecast on every line here.