India reaches the newborn target in 2030. The Philippines is still short of it in 2034.

Satoria's forecast

Satoria forecast for India: babies who die in their first month, per 1,000 born 9.05 per 1,000 births in 2034, down from 16.7 in 2024 - clearly lower. 80% range 6.47 to 13.0.

Three lines cross the target. One flattens out just above it.

On our central path Egypt goes under 12 per 1,000 in 2029 and India in 2030, the target year itself. Indonesia has been under it for years and keeps falling, to 5.84 by 2034. The Philippines does not arrive: 13.8 in 2009, 13.6 in 2024, 12.2 in 2034. The ranges are wide.

This is the number behind a maternity ward.

The rate counts deaths in the first 28 days of life per 1,000 live births. It is not a percentage. Behind it sit midwives, oxygen, a working ambulance at 3am and somewhere warm to keep a small baby. In 2024 India was at 16.7 per 1,000, Egypt at 13.9, the Philippines at 13.6 and Indonesia at 9.16.

2.3 million of the children who died in 2024 were newborns.

Of the 4.9 million children who died before their fifth birthday in 2024, 2.3 million never finished their first month. That is the half of child deaths the world has been slowest to fix. So the United Nations set a line: 12 newborn deaths per 1,000 live births by 2030.

Where does India land in 2034?

India has come down from 32.8 newborn deaths per 1,000 live births in 2009 to 16.7 in 2024. Move the slider to where you think our model puts it ten years from the last reading, then see the answer and the range around it.

The Philippines has the widest range of the four.

Our published range for the Philippines in 2034 runs from 8.91 to 15.3 per 1,000. The bottom is well under the target and the top is worse than today. So the flat central line is the most likely path, not a verdict. Fifteen flat years are what makes the model cautious.

2029 and 2030 are the two years to check.

If Egypt is under 12 per 1,000 in the 2029 figures and India in the 2030 figures, our path held. If the Philippines gets under it by 2034, we were too cautious, and we will say so in our public record.

What the world measured

An estimated 4.9 million children died before their fifth birthday in 2024, and 2.3 million of them were newborns. Newborn deaths are now close to half of the total, and they are the half that has fallen most slowly.

Southern Asia accounted for 25 per cent of all under-five deaths, driven mainly by what happens in the first month: births too early, trouble during delivery, infection.

The United Nations target is a single number that any country can check itself against: newborn deaths down to 12 per 1,000 live births by 2030.

Where these four countries stand

In 2024 India recorded 16.66 newborn deaths per 1,000 live births, Egypt 13.86, the Philippines 13.61 and Indonesia 9.16.

Indonesia is the quiet success. It was at 17.30 per 1,000 in 2009, almost exactly where Egypt was, and it is now well under the target line.

The Philippines started the same period lower than all of them except Indonesia, at 13.78 per 1,000 in 2009, and it is at 13.61 today. Fifteen years, and less than a fifth of a point.

What our model says next

Egypt reaches 11.80 per 1,000 in 2029 on our central path and India 11.85 in 2030, the target year itself. Neither has room to spare.

Both keep falling afterwards: India to 9.05 by 2034 and Egypt to 10.06. Indonesia goes to 5.84.

The Philippines flattens just above the line and stays there, at 12.20 in 2034. The published range for that number runs from 8.91 to 15.29, which is wide enough to allow a comfortable pass or a worse result than today. The central path is the most likely one, not the only one.

How much to trust this

On data held out from fitting and model choice, across 44 country series, this model's errors were 54% smaller than assuming no change. That is a result for the series as a group, not a promise for any one country.

The yearly ranges are wide, and for the Philippines the range still contains today's value, which is the model saying plainly that it cannot tell a flat line from a slow fall yet.

One more thing this measure is not: it says nothing about how many babies are born. A country with fewer births and the same care would show the same rate.