Newborn deaths in Poland fall from 2.47 to 1.95 per 1,000 births by 2034. Britain is the exception.

Satoria's forecast

Satoria forecast for Poland: babies who die in their first month, per 1,000 born 1.95 per 1,000 births in 2034, down from 2.47 in 2024 - could go either way. 80% range 0.92 to 3.07.

Poland's newborn deaths fall to 1.95 per 1,000 births by 2034.

Deaths in the first month of life. Poland was on 2.47 in 2024 and our central path takes it to 1.95 by 2034, the biggest move of the six here, going below Germany in 2027. Britain is the one line that climbs. Poland's 80% range for 2034 is 0.92 to 3.07.

Two questions parents actually ask.

Is my baby safe, and can I afford the week's food. The health path runs ten years and has Poland falling to 2034; the food path runs one year and is much weaker.

Britain was the record holder in 2014. It has not got back there since.

The record low was 2.5 deaths per 1,000 births in the first month of life. In 2024 it was 3, the same as 2023, and our path has it drifting to 3.26 by 2034 instead of falling. In Poland the same kind of number fell again this year.

Britain aside, one of these five barely moves at all by 2034. Which one?

All five of the others fall over the ten years, but not by the same amount. One of them ends almost exactly where it started, and it is not the one most people pick.

German food stood still for a year. That is about to end.

German food prices were 0.1% above last August. Satoria has them near 1.9% a year from now. This one runs a single year out, not to 2034 like the falling health path, and it is the weakest number in the story.

One group of babies decides almost all of it.

Babies born before 24 weeks are 0.1% of all births in England and Wales and nearly 40% of these deaths. That is where the British line gets made, and where any fall back towards 2.5 by 2034 would have to come from.

Three numbers, all published once a year or once a month.

You can check every part of this yourself. Two come from statistics offices, one is our own path to 2034, on which Poland keeps falling and Britain does not.

What the figures say now

In May 2026 the Office for National Statistics published deaths in the first month of life for England and Wales in 2024: 3 per 1,000 live births, the same as 2023, against a record low of 2.5 in 2014. Little progress since 2020 towards the government target of 1.5.

In Poland the arrow points down: infant deaths at 3.1 per 1,000 births in the first half of 2026, 0.3 points lower than a year before. Poland counts the whole first year and Britain the first month.

What Satoria's model says to 2034

For 2034 our path reads: Sweden 1.33 per 1,000 births, Italy 1.69, Poland 1.95, Germany 2.27, Britain 3.26, the United States 3.57. Britain is the only one of the six that ends higher than it started.

Poland is the big mover: 2.47 in 2024 down to 1.95 in 2034, about a fifth of the rate gone, and it goes below Germany in 2027. Germany and the United States barely move at all over the ten years. Britain goes the other way, 3.04 to 3.26.

On data held out from fitting and model choice across 64 country series this model's errors were 68% smaller than assuming no change, and it beat that benchmark in about three series out of four. The ranges widen with distance: Britain's 80% range (where the real number should land 8 times in 10) for 2034 runs from 2.51 to 3.75, and Poland's from 0.92 to 3.07.

The weekly shop

The other number in a parent's week is food, and Germany is the calmest place to fill a trolley in years: 0.1% above August 2025. British food was 1.3% dearer and American food 2.7%.

Satoria expects the pause to end, taking German food to about 1.9% above a year earlier by August 2027, Britain to 1.6% and America down to 1.7%. The food model beat a no-change guess by only 1.5% in tests, a moderate grade. A year of standing still is the unusual thing, not the rise.