Energy bills stop jumping in 2027. Our model has Italy near 2% and Poland above 5% out to 2036.

Satoria's forecast

Satoria forecast for Italy: how much more energy costs each year 2.0% in 2036, down from 17.1% in 2026 - could go either way. 80% range -20.4% to 30.8%.

Italy settles near 2% a year to 2036. Poland stays above 5% the whole way.

Pick a country. Years to 2026 are measured, then our forecast takes over with its 80% range. Italy goes from 17.1% this year to about 2.6% next year and 2% in 2036. Poland stays above 5% every year, peaking at 6.2% in 2034. Those ranges are the widest we publish. The relief is the central path, not a promise.

At 70 your income is a fixed number. Everything else moves.

The years ahead, the pension, the energy bill, the prescriptions. Our forecasts say two of those get easier. Tap the one you think about most.

The winter that frightened everyone is not coming back.

Energy cost 17.1% more this year in Italy and Spain. Our forecast brings Italy to about 2.6% next year and keeps it near 2% to 2036. Five of six countries get the same relief. Poland does not.

Italian energy rose 17.1% this year. Where is it ten years out?

Card 1 has the answer. Move the slider to where you would have put it first. Four hard winters have trained everyone to guess high.

The country with Europe's best pensions has its biggest gap: 36%.

A Dutch woman over 65 gets on average 36.3% less pension than a Dutch man. Poland has the smallest gap of this group at 14.5%. In the United States women get about 82% of the average man's payment. These are measurements for 2024, not forecasts.

A Polish man of 65 has 3.6 fewer years ahead than a French one.

Poland has the shortest lives for men here, and the widest gap between women and men: 4.0 years. The Netherlands has the narrowest, 2.0. And extra years are not all good years. In Canada women live 4.4 years longer than men. Only 1.3 of those years are healthy ones.

One cold winter would settle this, and it comes first.

Our forecast says the energy shock is finished. The ranges say wait and see. Your own tariff letter arrives before any statistic.

The bill that stops jumping

Energy has been the number older people watched most closely for four years. In 2026 it cost 17.1% more than a year earlier in Italy and Spain. France 16.5%, the Netherlands 11.7%, Poland 10.3%, Germany 9.4%.

Our forecast ends that. In 2027: Italy 2.6%, Germany 3.0%, Spain 3.4%, France 3.8%, the Netherlands 3.9%. And it stays there for a decade. Italy is at 2.1% in 2030 and 2% in 2036.

Poland is the exception, and it is not a small one. Our forecast has Poland at about 5.2% next year, roughly twice the Italian figure, and above 5% in every year to 2036, peaking at 6.2% in 2034. Over ten years that difference compounds into real money on a fixed income.

Health care costs split the same way, with the countries swapping places. Germany's yearly rise falls from 6.0% in 2026 to about 3.6% next year and 3.2% by 2030. Poland's stays near 4.5%. So on our central path Poland passes Germany in 2027, and stays above it. France stays near 1% a year, the calmest here by a wide margin.

The energy model earned its high grade: about 23% less error than assuming nothing changes, across 20 country series. It also has the widest ranges we publish, and they widen with the horizon. Italy's 80% band runs from -17% to +27% for 2027 and from -20% to +31% for 2036. Read the relief as our central path, and keep the range in mind before you plan around it.

A fixed income meeting a moving price

Our monthly forecast reaches August 2027 for prices in four countries. Britain 3.6%, the United States 3.2%, Germany 2.9%, Canada 2.8%. Britain is the only one of the four that speeds up, from 3.3%.

For a pension that does not move, the price rise is the number that decides how far your money goes. On 1,200 pounds a month, 3.6% is about 43 pounds. Five years at the same rate takes about 19% off what your money can buy. That is our arithmetic on our own forecast rate held steady, and we label it that way rather than calling it a five-year forecast.

The question that follows is what your pension does in response. That depends on the rules where you live, not on any forecast. It is worth checking the increase you are offered against the 3.6%. The gap between the two is the size of the change in your life.

Who carries it

Eurostat measures how much smaller the average pension of a woman over 65 is than a man's. The answer in 2024: 36.3% in the Netherlands, 29.2% in Spain, 28.6% in Italy, 27.2% in France, 25.8% in Germany, 14.5% in Poland. The European Union average is 24.5%.

The Netherlands is the country most often held up as the example of how to run a pension system. It has the biggest gap between men and women in this group. Poland, which is rarely held up as an example of anything, has the smallest.

The United States counts it differently and lands in similar territory. In December 2024 the average monthly retired-worker payment was 2,181 dollars for men and 1,780 dollars for women. Women received about 82% of what men received.

Then there is the household. Living alone after 65 is mostly a woman's experience. France: 46.8% of women against 25.1% of men. Germany: 45.4% against 22.3%. Poland: 26.8% against 13.6%. One person alone pays a whole energy bill and a whole standing charge on one pension.

Put it together for one person. A woman living alone in Poland has the smallest pension gap in this group. She also has the fastest energy bill in our forecast, near 5% a year to 2030. Her health costs rise near 4.5%. She is likely to spend about 20 years after 65. None of those four numbers comes from the same place, and all four land on the same kitchen table.

Years, good years, and one number we will not publish

Here is how many years are left at 65, men then women. Poland has the fewest, at 16.3 and 20.3, then Germany at 18.0 and 21.2, the United States at 18.4 and 20.8, Britain at 18.7 and 21.2, the Netherlands at 18.9 and 20.9, and France the most, at 19.9 and 23.6.

A Polish man who turns 65 has about 3.6 fewer years ahead of him than a French man of the same age. Poland also has the widest gap between women and men, 4.0 years. The Netherlands has the narrowest, 2.0 years. The country where men do worst is the country where the gap is widest, which is not a coincidence.

Canada publishes something most countries do not: how many of those years are expected to be healthy ones. In 2023 Canadian women lived 4.4 years longer than men, 84.0 against 79.6. But only 1.3 of those extra years were healthy: 67.7 against 66.4. At 65 a Canadian could expect 15.3 more healthy years. That ranged from 13.6 in the poorest fifth of the country to 16.0 in the richest.

One last thing, because it matters more than any number here. We hold our own life expectancy model and we are not publishing it in this story. It beats assuming no change by only about 1%. Its 2026 figure for Poland is 82.7 years for both sexes. That sits about four years above what Eurostat measured for 2024. When our number disagrees with a statistics office, we use theirs and tell you that we did.