In our forecast Italy goes past America in 2029 and reaches the 100% top of this measure by 2034.

Satoria's forecast

Satoria forecast for Italy: people using the internet, in every 100 100.0% in 2034, up from 89.2% in 2024 - could go either way. 80% range 88.2% to 100.0%.

Italy reaches the top of this measure in 2031 and holds it to 2034.

Share of people using the internet: 89.2% in Italy in 2024. Our central path goes past America in 2029 and reaches the 100% top of the measure in 2031, which is as high as this measure goes, not a claim about every single person. Italy's 80% range for 2034 is 88.2% to 100%.

The last few per cent are not a rounding error.

When banking, benefits, appointments and tax go online only, the people left out are the ones who cannot appeal by post. Our path has Italy climbing to the top of this measure by 2034, while America is still short of it.

Everyone is arguing about the internet's electricity bill.

On 16 September 2026 the American House of Representatives voted 417 to 3 on who pays for the power network the data-centre boom needs. Nobody asked who is actually online, and our own path has Italy rising to the top of that measure by 2034.

And Poland in 2034?

Poland was the least connected of these four in 2024. It keeps rising on our central path to 2034, and it is the only one of the four that never runs into the top of the measure. How far does it get?

The last points are a choice, not a limit.

Spain reaches the top of this measure in 2028 and Italy in 2031. America only edges up to 97.7% by 2034, and nothing physical stops it closing that gap.

Three things that decide this.

The race is not about cable. It is about who a country bothers to reach, and on our path Italy rises to the top of this measure by 2034 while America does not.

The argument nobody is having

On 16 September 2026 the House of Representatives voted 417 to 3 for a bill that would make state regulators ask whether data centres should pay for the power network built to serve them. Data-centre electricity use is on course to almost double by 2030.

All of that is about the machines. The question underneath is about people: in 2024, 94.7% of Americans were online, 89.2% of Italians, 88.6% of Poles and 95.8% of Spaniards.

What Satoria's model says happens next

The model has Italy adding about 10.8 points between 2024 and 2034, and America about 3. The two central paths change places in 2029, at 97.5% against 97.1%, and Italy runs into the 100% top of the measure in 2031.

Spain got there three years earlier, in 2028. Poland stays the least connected, rising to 94.9% in 2034, which still leaves about five people in every hundred offline.

On data held out from fitting and model choice across 65 country series the model's errors were 66% smaller than assuming no change, and it beat that benchmark in 4 series out of 5. Read it as reliable on average rather than in every country.

Who the last few per cent are

A country near the top of this measure is not short of cable. The International Telecommunication Union points at cost, skills and coverage, and those land on the very old, the very rural, the very poor: the people most likely to need a benefit, a prescription or a bank.

Worldwide the same body counts about 6 billion people online in 2025 and 2.2 billion still offline. Poland, on about five in every hundred offline in 2034, keeps the largest gap of the four.

What the forecast is not

Two honest problems. The Italian and Spanish central paths run into 100%, and that is the top of the measure, not a prediction that every human is connected. And the 80% ranges are wide: Italy's for 2034 runs from 88.2% to 100%, which still contains the 89.2% measured in 2024.

What could change the course

If America closed its remaining gap at Italy's pace it would reach the top of the measure well before 2034. It simply has not been happening, in the country that hosts a large share of the world's computing.