The average German week drifts from 33.5 hours to 32.1 by 2034, the biggest fall of ten countries.

Satoria's forecast

Satoria forecast for Germany: hours worked in an average week 32.1 hours in 2034, down from 33.5 hours in 2025 - clearly lower. 80% range 31.3 hours to 33.1 hours.

Germany falls furthest. Poland barely moves.

Pick a country and see the whole path with its 80% range (where the real number should land 8 times in 10). This model is graded moderate: 14.7% more accurate than assuming nothing changes, just under our 15% bar.

Six hours a week is about forty days a year.

The gap between the average German week and the average Polish week is not a number you feel once. Over a year it is roughly 40 eight-hour days.

The union asked for money. The hours are falling anyway.

IG Metall wants 5% more pay for 3.7 million engineering workers, and says it is defending the 35-hour week, not shortening it. The average German week is already 33.9 hours.

How much longer will a Polish week be in 2034?

Almost everyone guesses one or two hours. It is already bigger than that today.

Nobody is shortening the German full-time week.

A German full-time job is 39.9 hours, and it has lost 36 minutes in ten years. The average falls because almost a third of employees now work part-time, a record.

One thing would flatten this line.

The fall is a part-time story, so it stops when part-time stops spreading. If the shortage of skilled workers pulls people back to full time, the line flattens.

Three numbers that settle this.

The part-time rate, the wage round that opens on 7 October, and next spring's hours release.

What happened

On 23 September 2026 IG Metall, Germany's largest industrial union, demanded a 5% pay rise for 3.7 million workers in engineering and electronics. Talks begin on 7 October and strikes are possible from 1 November. The union named the 35-hour week as one of the rights it is defending.

The line itself keeps moving on its own. Eurostat put the average German week at 33.9 hours in 2025, the joint second shortest in the European Union, behind the Netherlands on 31.9. The Union average is 35.9 hours and Poland is on 38.7. In the same year 3.8 million employed Germans said they would rather work fewer hours, knowing it would cost them pay.

What Satoria's model says next

Germany's central path goes from 33.5 hours in 2025 to 32.1 in 2034, with an 80% range at the end of 31.3 to 33.1. That is a fall of 1.4 hours, the largest of the ten. Italy is next at 1.0 hours and Canada moves least at 0.1.

Poland is the counterweight, starting with the longest week in the set and keeping it: 38.9 hours in 2025, 38.2 in 2034. The distance between the average German and the average Pole grows from 5.4 hours a week to 6.1, roughly 40 eight-hour days a year.

We tested the model on five years it had never seen: 14.7% more accurate than simply assuming nothing changes, across 31 country series. Our bar for a high grade is 15%, so this lands just below it.

The average is not the shift

A German full-time job in 2025 was 39.9 hours a week; in 2015 it was 40.5. Ten years of debate has moved the full-time week by 36 minutes. What has moved is the mix: part-time work now covers 31.9% of German employees, a record, and two thirds of employed mothers with a child under 18 are part-time against 8.6% of fathers.

The 3.8 million Germans who want shorter hours already average 40.9 hours and would give up 10.5 of them for less pay. The 1.5 million who want more are mostly part-timers on 26.2 hours. Grant both wishes tomorrow and the week falls by 36 minutes.

What would move it

One thing, mostly: the part-time share. If it stops rising, the German line flattens and 32.1 hours in 2034 is too low. German employers are pushing hard in that direction, and the shortage of skilled workers gives them a case for more hours.