A French home costs less than in 2010, and our forecast has it back above that price by 2035.

Satoria's forecast

Satoria forecast for France: house prices after inflation, against 2010 105.9 index (2010 = 100) in 2035, up from 99.1 in the first quarter of 2026 - could go either way. 80% range 83.2 to 142.7.

A French home goes back above its 2010 price by 2035.

With inflation taken out, France sits at 99 today, where 2010 = 100. That reading is the first quarter of 2026 only. Our central path has France back at 100 in 2027 and 106 by 2035. Poland is the only one of the six that ends lower than today.

The hard part is the deposit, not the price.

With inflation taken out, our path climbs from 99 to 106 in France by 2035, about seven points in nine years. Waiting a year costs you less than you think. Rent is the money you never get back.

And a British home in 2035?

Britain is at 109 in the first quarter of 2026, where 2010 = 100, with inflation taken out. Our path has it rising in every one of the nine years to 2035. How far does it get?

Five of six climb slowly. Poland ends lower than today.

Pick a country. Years to the first quarter of 2026 are measured, then our forecast takes over with its 80% range (where the real number should land eight times in ten). Every line rises to 2035 except Poland's. The thing that would move them is the cost of borrowing, and we cannot forecast that.

Pay has beaten rent for a year. That pauses in November.

Three lines, one country, twelve months ahead. Pay ends in front. In the middle of the winter rent moves ahead for about five months. Our house price path climbs to 2035; this one stops in August 2027, because the monthly model has no longer horizon.

The pay gap barely exists yet. In France it runs the other way.

Under 25, French women earned 5.2% more an hour than French men in 2024. The gap opens in the next twenty years, not in these ones. Nothing on this card is a forecast: the only long path in this story is the house price line that climbs to 2035.

Four numbers that will tell you if we are wrong.

Each of these arrives on a known date and either fits our rising path to 2035 or breaks it.

The shelf moves, but slowly

House prices usually reach you as a number on a sign, and that number almost always rises. The more useful question is whether a home gets dearer than everything else, including your pay. Take inflation out and set 2010 at 100.

On that measure France sits at 99 in the first quarter of 2026, a little less than sixteen years earlier. Britain is at 109, Germany at 128 and the United States at 156.

Satoria's central path to 2035 is the answer this story is built on: France 106, Britain 119, Poland 121, Germany 139, Canada 158 and the United States 165. France crosses back above its 2010 level in 2027, and Poland is the only one of the six that ends below where it is now.

The ranges are wide. Britain's 2035 range runs from 95 to 158 and France's from 83 to 143, so read the direction before the level.

Rent against pay, month by month

The other half of a young person's month is rent, and here we can only speak clearly about one country. In America pay has grown faster than rent in every month of the past year: 3.1% against 2.8% in August 2026.

Our forecast keeps that order to August 2027, rent about 2.7% higher and pay about 2.9%. But from November 2026 to March 2027 rent moves ahead of pay for about five months. If your renewal lands in that window, you will feel it.

These three models are strong and narrow: each cut the error by more than 80% against assuming no change, and each was tested on one country series, so we grade them moderate.

Where you rent matters more than when

The age of moving out follows the same map. In 2024 the average young person left the family home at 23.2 in the Netherlands, at 26.7 in Poland, and at about 30 in Spain and Italy. That is a difference in what a first flat costs against a first salary.

Work at the start, and the gap that comes later

A first job is a different task depending on the border. In 2025 about 1 in 4 Spanish people aged 15 to 24 who wanted work did not have it. In Germany it was closer to 1 in 14.

Pay at that age is close to equal, which surprises people who know the headline gap. Under 25 in 2024, French women earned 5.2% more an hour than French men and German women 0.4% more.

It does not stay that way: the same table shows the gap reaching 14.5% in Germany by ages 35 to 44 and 24.7% by ages 55 to 64. That is worth knowing at 25.