Half of Brazil's energy came from renewable sources in 2023. America's share was 12%.

Satoria's forecast

Satoria forecast for Brazil: the share of energy that comes from renewable sources 52.0% of final energy use in 2033, up from 50.2% in 2023 - could go either way. 80% range 38.2% to 65.8%.

The gap barely moves, and the American share is the one growing.

Our central path puts Brazil at 52% of all energy used in 2033 and the United States at 13.9%. The American figure has nearly doubled since 2008, from 6.85%, which is the bigger relative change of the two. Brazil is holding a high level rather than climbing.

Firewood counts. So does charcoal.

The United Nations counts hydro, wind, solar, biogas, geothermal and solid biofuels, and it lists fuelwood, animal waste, bagasse and charcoal inside that last group. So the share mixes wind farms with wood burned in kitchens. And it is not your bill: a higher share does not make energy cheaper, and it is not a count of greenhouse gases.

The country with half its energy from renewable sources is not in Europe.

The United Nations puts renewable sources at 18% of all the energy the world finally used in 2023, up from 15.6% in 2015. Brazil was on 50.2% that year. The United States was on 12.3%.

Where does Brazil land in 2033?

Brazil was on 47% in 2008 and 50.2% in 2023, and the fifteen years in between include a long dip. Move the slider to where you think our model puts it ten years on.

One country series is a thin test.

This model was checked on data it did not fit, across 1 country series, where its errors were 16% smaller than assuming no change. Its 80% ranges held the true value about 60 times in 100 instead of 80. Brazil's range for 2033 runs from 38.2% to 65.8%.

Watch the modern half, not the headline share.

The United Nations publishes a second figure for modern renewables, which was 13.4% of world energy in 2023 against 18% for all renewables. The distance between those two numbers is wood and charcoal. When a country's headline share rises and its modern share rises with it, the change is the kind most readers have in mind.

Half, an eighth, and the world in between

The United Nations reports that renewable energy reached 18% of total final energy consumption in 2023, up from 15.6% in 2015, and that modern renewables inside that went from 10.2% to 13.4%.

Brazil sits far above both figures. It took 50.2% of all the energy it finally used from renewable sources in 2023, against 47% in 2008. The road between was not straight: the share fell to 41.7% in 2014 before climbing back, and 2023 is the highest reading in this window.

The United States sits far below. It went from 6.85% in 2008 to 12.3% in 2023, a rise in almost every year. Measured against where each country started, the American change is the larger of the two.

What the measure counts

The metadata for this indicator is unusually blunt. Renewable energy consumption covers hydro, wind, solar, solid biofuels, liquid biofuels, biogas, geothermal, marine and renewable waste, and solid biofuels are defined as fuelwood, animal waste, vegetable waste, black liquor, bagasse and charcoal.

That is why the measure needs reading twice. Brazil's share is built largely on hydro power and on sugarcane, which shows up here as liquid and solid biofuels. Elsewhere a high share can mean something much poorer: the same United Nations page reports that over two billion people still depend on polluting fuels for cooking.

The denominator matters as much as the numerator. This is all final energy use, so heating and transport are in it, not electricity alone. A country can build a lot of wind and see the share move slowly because everything else grew too. And none of it is a bill: a higher share does not make energy cheaper for anybody.

What our model says next, and how thin the test is

Our central path puts Brazil at 52% of all energy used in 2033 and the United States at 13.9%. Neither is a dramatic move.

The ranges are wide. Brazil's published 80% band for 2033 runs from 38.2% to 65.8% of all energy used, and the American one from 9.58% to 17.5%. The American floor is below the 12.3% of 2023, so our own forecast contains ten years with no progress.

The test behind the model is the weakest part of this story and we would rather say it than bury it. On data held out from fitting and model choice the errors were 16% smaller than assuming no change, but that was measured across 1 country series. Its 80% ranges held the true value in about 60 of every 100 held-out years instead of 80. Read the direction, not the decimal.