France's grain harvest reaches about 56 million tonnes in 2034. Shop food prices rise a third to two thirds.

Satoria's forecast

Satoria forecast for France: grain harvest 55.8 million tonnes in 2034, up from 53.6 million tonnes in 2024 - could go either way. 80% range 37.8 million tonnes to 73.7 million tonnes.

France reaches about 56 million tonnes in 2034, and then the line lies flat.

Tap a country to see its path and its range. Against the poor 2024, the 2034 forecast is a little higher in France, Germany, Poland and Britain, and a little lower in Spain. The ranges are wide, because weather is wide.

Pick the one closest to you.

The same model run says the harvest holds to 2034 and the shop price keeps rising to 2035. Those two mean very different things on a grain farm and at a supermarket checkout.

The harvest barely rises to 2034. Now guess what the shop price does.

Food in Polish shops stood at 180 on an index where 2014 to 2016 = 100. Set the slider for 2035 before you look.

The harvest holds to 2034. The shop price keeps rising.

On the same index, the food price level in 2035 runs from 180 in France to 296 in Poland. Against 2026 that is a third more in France and two thirds more in Poland, though the French, German and Spanish 2026 readings cover January to March 2026 only.

Paid 5.8% less for crops. Charged 4.7% more for supplies.

This is where the forecast to 2034 starts. Eurostat's headline was blunt: farm output prices fall as input costs rise. Fertiliser cost 13.4% more and fuel 22% more.

One wet August, and this whole page is wrong.

Satoria has no weather forecast worth publishing, so the harvest line to 2034 is a trend read off past harvests, and the range around it is wide enough to hold a big rise or a big fall.

Three figures that decide the next two seasons.

All three are public and free. Together they say whether the squeeze is easing or the input bills are still rising, long before 2034.

What Satoria's model says about the harvest to 2034

The striking thing is how little happens. For 2034 the forecast reads: France about 56 million tonnes, Germany about 39 million, Poland about 35 million, Spain about 20 million, Britain about 20.5 million. Four of the five sit a little above the 2024 result, Spain a little below.

France shows the shape. A poor 53.6 million tonnes in 2024, about 57.6 million tonnes by 2027, then a drift back to about 55.8 million tonnes in 2034. Germany hardly moves at all, from about 39 million tonnes to about 39.2 million.

This model is modest. On data held out from fitting and model choice across 49 country series its errors were 11% smaller than assuming no change. The ranges are very wide, and that is correct rather than a failing, because a harvest is mostly weather.

And what the shop charges

The same model run forecasts the level of food prices. By 2035 it has that level at about 180 in France, 200 in Spain, 204 in Britain, 221 in Germany and 296 in Poland, on an index where 2014 to 2016 = 100. In 2026 France stood at 136 and Poland at 180.

Read that next to the harvest numbers and you have the farm argument of the decade: about the same tonnage leaves the field, and the shop price is a third to two thirds higher. Growing more is not the route to a bigger payment.

One warning we would rather give than bury. On data held out from fitting and model choice across 50 country series the model's errors were 19% smaller than assuming no change, but its 80% ranges held only 34% of real outcomes. We publish its central path and no range.

Where the forecast starts

On 10 September 2026 Eurostat put European Union farm output prices 5.8% lower than a year earlier, cereals 5.6% lower.

The bills went the opposite way. Input prices rose 4.7%, fertiliser and soil improvers 13.4%, energy and lubricants 22%.