Babies who do not reach their first birthday in Ukraine: our forecast to 2034
Satoria projects babies who do not reach their first birthday in Ukraine at about 6.5 per 1,000 live births in 2034, from 7.6 per 1,000 live births recorded in 2024.
How far the evidence reaches
Beyond tested horizon. Tests cover up to 5 years ahead (through 2029 from this reference), across 66 country series. Longer horizons extend beyond those tests. Colours show evidence, not certainty.
The full name of this series is Babies who do not reach their first birthday (infant mortality rate).
The path
- 2025: Satoria forecast 7.4 per 1,000 live births (80% range 7.3 to 7.6)
- 2026: Satoria forecast 7.3 per 1,000 live births (80% range 7.1 to 7.5)
- 2030: Satoria forecast 6.8 per 1,000 live births (80% range 6 to 7.4)
- 2034: Satoria forecast 6.5 per 1,000 live births (80% range 5.3 to 7.5)
Where it starts
The latest source value is 7.6 per 1,000 live births recorded in 2024, published by World Bank - World Development Indicators. Everything after that year is Satoria's forecast, with the range printed next to it.
The same measure elsewhere
- Babies who do not reach their first birthday in United States
- Babies who do not reach their first birthday in Germany
- Babies who do not reach their first birthday in India
Every forecast we have for Ukraine · Babies who do not reach their first birthday in every country
This forecast as data: https://satoria-pipeline-production.up.railway.app/api/forecast/wb.infant_mortality?country=UKR
Conditions and limits
War changes the conditions
A historical statistical path cannot tell us how the war will develop. Security, migration, mobilisation and reconstruction can change both employment and the size of the workforce. This forecast publishes no explicit war scenario. Read it as a conditional statistical projection, not a prediction of peace or recovery.
NBU: assumptions and risks, January 2026
What this number can establish
The published record supports a statistical projection and a model range. It does not establish why a future event will happen. Connections between measurements are predictive associations, not proof of causation. Source measurements, estimates and Satoria forecasts must be read separately.
The model range is not a guarantee. Historical test coverage is not the probability of the central forecast happening.
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