Share of home energy from heat pumps in Germany: our forecast to 2034

Satoria projects share of home energy from heat pumps in Germany at about 6% in 2034, from 2.9% recorded in 2024. 80% range 2.9% to 7.3%.

How far the evidence reaches

Limited evidence. This measurement has no sufficiently calibrated test horizon on the record. Colour does not represent a probability.

The full name of this series is Share of home energy from heat pumps (households' final energy consumption, ambient heat (heat pumps), % of total).

The path

• 2025: Satoria forecast 3.1% (80% range 2.6 to 3.5)
• 2026: Satoria forecast 3.3% (80% range 2.7 to 3.9)
• 2030: Satoria forecast 4.3% (80% range 3.2 to 5.6)
• 2034: Satoria forecast 6% (80% range 2.9 to 7.3)

Where it starts

The latest source value is 2.9% recorded in 2024, published by Eurostat. Everything after that year is Satoria's forecast, with the range printed next to it.

The same measure elsewhere

• Share of home energy from heat pumps in United States
• Share of home energy from heat pumps in India
• Share of home energy from heat pumps in Brazil

Every forecast we have for Germany · Share of home energy from heat pumps in every country

This forecast as data: https://satoria-pipeline-production.up.railway.app/api/forecast/eurostat.hh_energy_share_heat_pumps?country=DEU

Conditions and limits

What this number can establish

The published record supports a statistical projection and a model range. It does not establish why a future event will happen. Connections between measurements are predictive associations, not proof of causation. Source measurements, estimates and Satoria forecasts must be read separately.

The model range is not a guarantee. Historical test coverage is not the probability of the central forecast happening.

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