How tense one country looks in Poland: our forecast to 2036
Satoria projects how tense one country looks in Poland at about 0.2% in 2036, from 0.3% recorded in 2026. 80% range 0.1% to 0.9%.
How far the evidence reaches
Limited evidence. This measurement has no sufficiently calibrated test horizon on the record. Colour does not represent a probability.
The full name of this series is How tense one country looks (geopolitical risk index, country level).
The path
- 2027: Satoria forecast 0.2% (80% range 0.1 to 0.6)
- 2028: Satoria forecast 0.2% (80% range 0.1 to 0.7)
- 2032: Satoria forecast 0.2% (80% range 0.1 to 0.8)
- 2036: Satoria forecast 0.2% (80% range 0.1 to 0.9)
Where it starts
The latest source value is 0.3% recorded in 2026, published by Geopolitical Risk Index (Caldara & Iacoviello). Everything after that year is Satoria's forecast, with the range printed next to it.
The same measure elsewhere
- How tense one country looks in United States
- How tense one country looks in Germany
- How tense one country looks in India
Every forecast we have for Poland · How tense one country looks in every country
This forecast as data: https://satoria-pipeline-production.up.railway.app/api/forecast/gpr.country_risk?country=POL
Conditions and limits
What this number can establish
The published record supports a statistical projection and a model range. It does not establish why a future event will happen. Connections between measurements are predictive associations, not proof of causation. Source measurements, estimates and Satoria forecasts must be read separately.
The model range is not a guarantee. Historical test coverage is not the probability of the central forecast happening.
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