Children who do not reach their fifth birthday in South Africa: our forecast to 2034

Name: Children who do not reach their fifth birthday in South Africa: Satoria forecast to 2034
Creator: Satoria

Satoria projects children who do not reach their fifth birthday in South Africa at about 34 per_1000 in 2034, from 34.7 per_1000 recorded in 2024.

How far the evidence reaches

Beyond tested horizon. Tests cover up to 5 years ahead (through 2029 from this reference), across 64 country series. Longer horizons extend beyond those tests. Colours show evidence, not certainty.

The full name of this series is Children who do not reach their fifth birthday (child mortality rate).

The path

2025: Satoria forecast 35 per_1000 (80% range 34.1 to 35.7)
2026: Satoria forecast 35.1 per_1000 (80% range 33.8 to 36.6)
2030: Satoria forecast 34.9 per_1000 (80% range 29.2 to 41.7)
2034: Satoria forecast 34 per_1000 (80% range 23.9 to 48.4)

Where it starts

The latest source value is 34.7 per_1000 recorded in 2024, published by Gapminder. Everything after that year is Satoria's forecast, with the range printed next to it.

The same measure elsewhere

Every forecast we have for South Africa · Children who do not reach their fifth birthday in every country

This forecast as data: https://satoria-pipeline-production.up.railway.app/api/forecast/gapminder.child_mortality?country=ZAF

Conditions and limits

What this number can establish

The published record supports a statistical projection and a model range. It does not establish why a future event will happen. Connections between measurements are predictive associations, not proof of causation. Source measurements, estimates and Satoria forecasts must be read separately.

The model range is not a guarantee. Historical test coverage is not the probability of the central forecast happening.

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