Whether the government spends more than it takes in in Uganda: our forecast to 2035
Satoria projects whether the government spends more than it takes in in Uganda at about -6.9% in 2035, from -6.6% recorded in 2025. 80% range -13.5% to -0.6%.
How far the evidence reaches
Beyond tested horizon. Tests cover up to 5 years ahead (through 2030 from this reference), across 66 country series. Longer horizons extend beyond those tests. Colours show evidence, not certainty.
The full name of this series is Whether the government spends more than it takes in (government budget balance, % of gross domestic product).
The path
- 2026: Satoria forecast -6.6% (80% range -8.9 to -4.4)
- 2027: Satoria forecast -6.6% (80% range -9.9 to -3.5)
- 2031: Satoria forecast -6.9% (80% range -12.2 to -1.9)
- 2035: Satoria forecast -6.9% (80% range -13.5 to -0.6)
Where it starts
The latest source value is -6.6% recorded in 2025, published by International Monetary Fund - World Economic Outlook. Everything after that year is Satoria's forecast, with the range printed next to it.
The same measure elsewhere
- Whether the government spends more than it takes in in United States
- Whether the government spends more than it takes in in Germany
- Whether the government spends more than it takes in in India
Every forecast we have for Uganda · Whether the government spends more than it takes in in every country
This forecast as data: https://satoria-pipeline-production.up.railway.app/api/forecast/imf.budget_balance_pct_gdp?country=UGA
Conditions and limits
What this number can establish
The published record supports a statistical projection and a model range. It does not establish why a future event will happen. Connections between measurements are predictive associations, not proof of causation. Source measurements, estimates and Satoria forecasts must be read separately.
The model range is not a guarantee. Historical test coverage is not the probability of the central forecast happening.
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