Children who do not reach their fifth birthday in Uganda: our forecast to 2034

Satoria projects children who do not reach their fifth birthday in Uganda at about 38.4 per 1,000 live births in 2034, from 48.7 per 1,000 live births recorded in 2024.

How far the evidence reaches

Beyond tested horizon. Tests cover up to 5 years ahead (through 2029 from this reference), across 65 country series. Longer horizons extend beyond those tests. Colours show evidence, not certainty.

The full name of this series is Children who do not reach their fifth birthday (under-five mortality rate).

The path

Where it starts

The latest source value is 48.7 per 1,000 live births recorded in 2024, published by World Health Organization - Global Health Observatory. Everything after that year is Satoria's forecast, with the range printed next to it.

The same measure elsewhere

Every forecast we have for Uganda · Children who do not reach their fifth birthday in every country

This forecast as data: https://satoria-pipeline-production.up.railway.app/api/forecast/who.under5_mortality?country=UGA

Conditions and limits

What this number can establish

The published record supports a statistical projection and a model range. It does not establish why a future event will happen. Connections between measurements are predictive associations, not proof of causation. Source measurements, estimates and Satoria forecasts must be read separately.

The model range is not a guarantee. Historical test coverage is not the probability of the central forecast happening.

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