How tense one country looks in Ukraine: our forecast to 2036

Satoria projects how tense one country looks in Ukraine at about 0.8% in 2036, from 1.1% recorded in 2026. 80% range 0.1% to 5.4%.

How far the evidence reaches

Limited evidence. This measurement has no sufficiently calibrated test horizon on the record. Colour does not represent a probability.

The full name of this series is How tense one country looks (geopolitical risk index, country level).

The path

Where it starts

The latest source value is 1.1% recorded in 2026, published by Geopolitical Risk Index (Caldara & Iacoviello). Everything after that year is Satoria's forecast, with the range printed next to it.

The same measure elsewhere

Every forecast we have for Ukraine · How tense one country looks in every country

This forecast as data: https://satoria-pipeline-production.up.railway.app/api/forecast/gpr.country_risk?country=UKR

Conditions and limits

War changes the conditions

A historical statistical path cannot tell us how the war will develop. Security, migration, mobilisation and reconstruction can change both employment and the size of the workforce. This forecast publishes no explicit war scenario. Read it as a conditional statistical projection, not a prediction of peace or recovery.

NBU: assumptions and risks, January 2026

What this number can establish

The published record supports a statistical projection and a model range. It does not establish why a future event will happen. Connections between measurements are predictive associations, not proof of causation. Source measurements, estimates and Satoria forecasts must be read separately.

The model range is not a guarantee. Historical test coverage is not the probability of the central forecast happening.

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