Whether the government spends more than it takes in in Ukraine: our forecast to 2035

Satoria cannot read a reliable direction for whether the government spends more than it takes in in Ukraine by 2035. 80% range -34.2% to -1.1%.

How far the evidence reaches

Limited evidence. Tests cover up to 5 years ahead (through 2030 from this reference), across 66 country series. Longer horizons extend beyond those tests. Colours show evidence, not certainty.

The full name of this series is Whether the government spends more than it takes in (government budget balance, % of gross domestic product).

The path

• 2026: Satoria forecast -17.4% (80% range -23.5 to -11.1)
• 2027: Satoria forecast -17% (80% range -25.3 to -8.8)
• 2031: Satoria forecast -16.9% (80% range -30.1 to -4.1)
• 2035: Satoria forecast -17.5% (80% range -34.2 to -1.1)

Where it starts

The latest source value is -17.6% recorded in 2025, published by International Monetary Fund - World Economic Outlook. Everything after that year is Satoria's forecast, with the range printed next to it.

The same measure elsewhere

• Whether the government spends more than it takes in in United States
• Whether the government spends more than it takes in in Germany
• Whether the government spends more than it takes in in India

Every forecast we have for Ukraine · Whether the government spends more than it takes in in every country

This forecast as data: https://satoria-pipeline-production.up.railway.app/api/forecast/imf.budget_balance_pct_gdp?country=UKR

Conditions and limits

War changes the conditions

A historical statistical path cannot tell us how the war will develop. Security, migration, mobilisation and reconstruction can change both employment and the size of the workforce. This forecast publishes no explicit war scenario. Read it as a conditional statistical projection, not a prediction of peace or recovery.

NBU: assumptions and risks, January 2026

What this number can establish

The published record supports a statistical projection and a model range. It does not establish why a future event will happen. Connections between measurements are predictive associations, not proof of causation. Source measurements, estimates and Satoria forecasts must be read separately.

The model range is not a guarantee. Historical test coverage is not the probability of the central forecast happening.

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