policy rate in United States: our forecast to 2036
Satoria cannot read a reliable direction for policy rate in United States by 2036. 80% range -20.4% to 27.5%.
How far the evidence reaches
Limited evidence. This measurement has no sufficiently calibrated test horizon on the record. Colour does not represent a probability.
The path
- 2027: Satoria forecast 3.6% (80% range -5 to 14.2)
- 2028: Satoria forecast 3.6% (80% range -8.4 to 18.2)
- 2032: Satoria forecast 3.4% (80% range -15.7 to 24.2)
- 2036: Satoria forecast 3.4% (80% range -20.4 to 27.5)
Where it starts
The latest source value is 3.9% recorded in 2026, published by Bank for International Settlements. Everything after that year is Satoria's forecast, with the range printed next to it.
The same measure elsewhere
Every forecast we have for United States · policy rate in every country
This forecast as data: https://satoria-pipeline-production.up.railway.app/api/forecast/bis.policy_rate?country=USA
Conditions and limits
What this number can establish
The published record supports a statistical projection and a model range. It does not establish why a future event will happen. Connections between measurements are predictive associations, not proof of causation. Source measurements, estimates and Satoria forecasts must be read separately.
The model range is not a guarantee. Historical test coverage is not the probability of the central forecast happening.
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