Killings per 100,000 people in Australia: our forecast to 2034

Satoria projects killings per 100,000 people in Australia at about 0.8 per_100k_population in 2034, from 0.9 per_100k_population recorded in 2024.

How far the evidence reaches

Beyond tested horizon. Tests cover up to 5 years ahead (through 2029 from this reference), across 39 country series. Longer horizons extend beyond those tests. Colours show evidence, not certainty.

The full name of this series is Killings per 100,000 people (intentional homicide rate).

The path

• 2025: Satoria forecast 0.9 per_100k_population (80% range 0.7 to 1.1)
• 2026: Satoria forecast 0.9 per_100k_population (80% range 0.6 to 1.2)
• 2030: Satoria forecast 0.8 per_100k_population (80% range 0.4 to 1.3)
• 2034: Satoria forecast 0.8 per_100k_population (80% range 0.3 to 1.4)

Where it starts

The latest source value is 0.9 per_100k_population recorded in 2024, published by United Nations - UN Data. Everything after that year is Satoria's forecast, with the range printed next to it.

The same measure elsewhere

• Killings per 100,000 people in United States
• Killings per 100,000 people in Germany
• Killings per 100,000 people in India

Every forecast we have for Australia · Killings per 100,000 people in every country

This forecast as data: https://satoria-pipeline-production.up.railway.app/api/forecast/un.homicide_rate?country=AUS

Conditions and limits

What this number can establish

The published record supports a statistical projection and a model range. It does not establish why a future event will happen. Connections between measurements are predictive associations, not proof of causation. Source measurements, estimates and Satoria forecasts must be read separately.

The model range is not a guarantee. Historical test coverage is not the probability of the central forecast happening.

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