Share of home energy from heat pumps in Norway: our forecast to 2034

Satoria projects share of home energy from heat pumps in Norway at about 26.4% in 2034, from 14.1% recorded in 2024. 80% range 13.6% to 32.1%.

How far the evidence reaches

Limited evidence. This measurement has no sufficiently calibrated test horizon on the record. Colour does not represent a probability.

The full name of this series is Share of home energy from heat pumps (households' final energy consumption, ambient heat (heat pumps), % of total).

The path

• 2025: Satoria forecast 15.4% (80% range 13 to 16.8)
• 2026: Satoria forecast 16.1% (80% range 13.3 to 18.2)
• 2030: Satoria forecast 20.1% (80% range 14.3 to 24.3)
• 2034: Satoria forecast 26.4% (80% range 13.6 to 32.1)

Where it starts

The latest source value is 14.1% recorded in 2024, published by Eurostat. Everything after that year is Satoria's forecast, with the range printed next to it.

The same measure elsewhere

• Share of home energy from heat pumps in United States
• Share of home energy from heat pumps in Germany
• Share of home energy from heat pumps in India

Every forecast we have for Norway · Share of home energy from heat pumps in every country

This forecast as data: https://satoria-pipeline-production.up.railway.app/api/forecast/eurostat.hh_energy_share_heat_pumps?country=NOR

Conditions and limits

What this number can establish

The published record supports a statistical projection and a model range. It does not establish why a future event will happen. Connections between measurements are predictive associations, not proof of causation. Source measurements, estimates and Satoria forecasts must be read separately.

The model range is not a guarantee. Historical test coverage is not the probability of the central forecast happening.

All stories · Countries · The map of the future · Why trust Satoria · Engine · About · Satoria vs the IMF · How accurate we are · Method · Indicators · For AI agents